Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005
Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings and feedback. To date, the most precise measurements of EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at the top of the a...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Netherlands
2024
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/155948 |
| _version_ | 1811097994876944384 |
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| author | Hakuba, Maria Z. Fourest, Sébastien Boyer, Tim Meyssignac, Benoit Carton, James A. Forget, Gaël Cheng, Lijing Giglio, Donata Johnson, Gregory C. Kato, Seiji Killick, Rachel E. Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas Kuusela, Mikael Landerer, Felix |
| author_facet | Hakuba, Maria Z. Fourest, Sébastien Boyer, Tim Meyssignac, Benoit Carton, James A. Forget, Gaël Cheng, Lijing Giglio, Donata Johnson, Gregory C. Kato, Seiji Killick, Rachel E. Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas Kuusela, Mikael Landerer, Felix |
| author_sort | Hakuba, Maria Z. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings and feedback. To date, the most precise measurements of EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while the quantification of EEI absolute magnitude is facilitated through heat inventory analysis, where ~ 90% of heat uptake manifests as an increase in ocean heat content (OHC). Various international groups provide OHC datasets derived from in situ and satellite observations, as well as from reanalyses ingesting many available observations. The WCRP formed the GEWEX-EEI Assessment Working Group to better understand discrepancies, uncertainties and reconcile current knowledge of EEI magnitude, variability and trends. Here, 21 OHC datasets and ocean heat uptake (OHU) rates are intercompared, providing OHU estimates ranging between 0.40 ± 0.12 and 0.96 ± 0.08 W m−2 (2005–2019), a spread that is slightly reduced when unequal ocean sampling is accounted for, and that is largely attributable to differing source data, mapping methods and quality control procedures. The rate of increase in OHU varies substantially between − 0.03 ± 0.13 (reanalysis product) and 1.1 ± 0.6 W m−2 dec−1 (satellite product). Products that either more regularly observe (satellites) or fill in situ data-sparse regions based on additional physical knowledge (some reanalysis and hybrid products) tend to track radiometric EEI variability better than purely in situ-based OHC products. This paper also examines zonal trends in TOA radiative fluxes and the impact of data gaps on trend estimates. The GEWEX-EEI community aims to refine their assessment studies, to forge a path toward best practices, e.g., in uncertainty quantification, and to formulate recommendations for future activities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T17:08:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/155948 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T17:08:17Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer Netherlands |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1559482024-09-20T04:07:39Z Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005 Hakuba, Maria Z. Fourest, Sébastien Boyer, Tim Meyssignac, Benoit Carton, James A. Forget, Gaël Cheng, Lijing Giglio, Donata Johnson, Gregory C. Kato, Seiji Killick, Rachel E. Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas Kuusela, Mikael Landerer, Felix Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings and feedback. To date, the most precise measurements of EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while the quantification of EEI absolute magnitude is facilitated through heat inventory analysis, where ~ 90% of heat uptake manifests as an increase in ocean heat content (OHC). Various international groups provide OHC datasets derived from in situ and satellite observations, as well as from reanalyses ingesting many available observations. The WCRP formed the GEWEX-EEI Assessment Working Group to better understand discrepancies, uncertainties and reconcile current knowledge of EEI magnitude, variability and trends. Here, 21 OHC datasets and ocean heat uptake (OHU) rates are intercompared, providing OHU estimates ranging between 0.40 ± 0.12 and 0.96 ± 0.08 W m−2 (2005–2019), a spread that is slightly reduced when unequal ocean sampling is accounted for, and that is largely attributable to differing source data, mapping methods and quality control procedures. The rate of increase in OHU varies substantially between − 0.03 ± 0.13 (reanalysis product) and 1.1 ± 0.6 W m−2 dec−1 (satellite product). Products that either more regularly observe (satellites) or fill in situ data-sparse regions based on additional physical knowledge (some reanalysis and hybrid products) tend to track radiometric EEI variability better than purely in situ-based OHC products. This paper also examines zonal trends in TOA radiative fluxes and the impact of data gaps on trend estimates. The GEWEX-EEI community aims to refine their assessment studies, to forge a path toward best practices, e.g., in uncertainty quantification, and to formulate recommendations for future activities. 2024-08-05T19:13:24Z 2024-08-05T19:13:24Z 2024-07-29 2024-08-04T03:14:13Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/155948 Hakuba, M.Z., Fourest, S., Boyer, T. et al. Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005. Surv Geophys (2024). PUBLISHER_CC en 10.1007/s10712-024-09849-5 Surveys in Geophysics Creative Commons Attribution https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Author(s) application/pdf Springer Netherlands Springer Netherlands |
| spellingShingle | Hakuba, Maria Z. Fourest, Sébastien Boyer, Tim Meyssignac, Benoit Carton, James A. Forget, Gaël Cheng, Lijing Giglio, Donata Johnson, Gregory C. Kato, Seiji Killick, Rachel E. Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas Kuusela, Mikael Landerer, Felix Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005 |
| title | Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005 |
| title_full | Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005 |
| title_fullStr | Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005 |
| title_short | Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005 |
| title_sort | trends and variability in earth s energy imbalance and ocean heat uptake since 2005 |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/155948 |
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