| Summary: | In 2008, the aviation industry became the first to adopt sector-wide sustainability targets, including carbon-neutral growth by 2020, a 50 percent reduction in net CO2 emissions by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels), and an annual improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5 percent from 2009 through 2020.[6] Over a decade later, the path to net zero emissions has remained elusive and as of 2023, the industry has not made sufficient progress towards these targets, let alone new 2050 net-zero targets formulated in 2021. Tackling decarbonization in the aviation industry has proven to be challenging for various reasons: the industry faces obstacles such as long development cycles for commercial aircraft, the highly-regulated nature of the sector, and uncertainties in sustainable technology advancements. From an airline’s perspective, planning for fleet sustainability is an extremely unstructured problem, demanding flexibility and adaptability. Adding to the complexity is the intense competition in the airline industry- a dynamic which seldom offers decision-makers with the luxury of time. Effective planning for a sustainable future requires the interconnection and critical consideration of short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. The question arises: How can we develop tools that offer adequate fidelity and granularity to enable airlines to plan for and execute on net zero goals? Sprague and Carlson (1982) define Decision Support Systems (DSS) broadly as interactive computer based systems that help decision-makers use data and models to solve ill- structured, unstructured or semi-structured problems. With the uncertainty of novel aircraft technologies, sustainable aviation fuel, and renewable energy sources, a DSS developed to support scenario analysis for airlines will prove valuable for airline executives, fleet planners, and inform OEMs of short-term and long-term aircraft needs. The Cascade Climate Impact Model is Boeing’s response to increasing industry demand for clarity on strategies to reduce aviation emissions. However, the underlying model focuses on macro-level analysis. In order to be considered a useful DSS for an airline stakeholder, Cascade will need to be further developed to provide granularity and fidelity sufficient for airline fleet planning and evolution decision-making. The project involves a thorough requirements development for a new version of Cascade tailored to support sustainable airline fleet planning. We delve into the specific needs and criteria that such a system must meet to effectively guide airlines in achieving their sustainability objectives. Then, a case study on a large capacity airline is conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the identified requirements. Furthermore, an analysis is undertaken to assess the current state of Cascade and the feasibility of implementing the requirements outlined for a sustainable airline fleet planning DSS. This evaluation aims to bridge the theoretical framework established through requirements analysis with the practical considerations of implementing such a system, with a specific focus on Boeing’s Cascade model. Through comparison of multiple fleet planning scenarios, the airline in question can remove up to 6 MtCO2 of future emissions by 2030; however, fleet evolution alone will not guarantee net zero emissions by 2050. Through analysis of current MOUs and SAF purchases, the airline is not on track to meet SAF uptake goals by 2030 and will need to reevaluate the current status of SAF purchase volumes with suppliers. Results from the case study indicate the capability of the newly-developed fleet planning workflows for Cascade to deliver actionable insights to airline decision-makers in their path towards decarbonization.
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