Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales
Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the so...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2024
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/156874 |
| _version_ | 1824458367176802304 |
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| author | Wang, Shouyi Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Murty, Sujata A. Nguyen, Hung T. T. Buckley, Brendan M. |
| author2 | Joint Program in Oceanography |
| author_facet | Joint Program in Oceanography Wang, Shouyi Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Murty, Sujata A. Nguyen, Hung T. T. Buckley, Brendan M. |
| author_sort | Wang, Shouyi |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the societies of mainland Southeast Asia. Here we utilize the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to quantify the contributions of internal and external drivers to decadal-scale rainfall extremes in the Southeast Asia region. We find that internal variability was dominant in driving both Southeast Asian drought and pluvial extremes on decadal timescales although external forcing impacts are also detectable. Specifically, rainfall extremes are more sensitive to Pacific Ocean internal variability than the state of the Indian Ocean. This discrepancy is greater for droughts than pluvials which we suggest is attributable to external forcing impacts that counteract the forced Indian Ocean teleconnections to Southeast Asia. Volcanic aerosols, the most effective radiative forcing during the last millennium, contributed to both the Ming Dynasty Drought (1637–1643) and the Strange Parallels Drought (1756–1768). From the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, we observe a shift in Indo-Pacific teleconnection strength to Southeast Asia consistent with enhanced volcanism during the latter interval. This work not only highlights asymmetries in the drivers of rainfall extremes but also presents a framework for quantifying multivariate drivers of decadal-scale variability and hydroclimatic extremes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:24:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/156874 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:24:46Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1568742025-01-02T04:38:42Z Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales Wang, Shouyi Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Murty, Sujata A. Nguyen, Hung T. T. Buckley, Brendan M. Joint Program in Oceanography Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the societies of mainland Southeast Asia. Here we utilize the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to quantify the contributions of internal and external drivers to decadal-scale rainfall extremes in the Southeast Asia region. We find that internal variability was dominant in driving both Southeast Asian drought and pluvial extremes on decadal timescales although external forcing impacts are also detectable. Specifically, rainfall extremes are more sensitive to Pacific Ocean internal variability than the state of the Indian Ocean. This discrepancy is greater for droughts than pluvials which we suggest is attributable to external forcing impacts that counteract the forced Indian Ocean teleconnections to Southeast Asia. Volcanic aerosols, the most effective radiative forcing during the last millennium, contributed to both the Ming Dynasty Drought (1637–1643) and the Strange Parallels Drought (1756–1768). From the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, we observe a shift in Indo-Pacific teleconnection strength to Southeast Asia consistent with enhanced volcanism during the latter interval. This work not only highlights asymmetries in the drivers of rainfall extremes but also presents a framework for quantifying multivariate drivers of decadal-scale variability and hydroclimatic extremes. 2024-09-16T18:52:03Z 2024-09-16T18:52:03Z 2024-09-12 2024-09-15T03:15:27Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/156874 Wang, S., Ummenhofer, C.C., Murty, S.A. et al. Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales. Clim Dyn (2024). PUBLISHER_CC en 10.1007/s00382-024-07412-x Climate Dynamics Creative Commons Attribution https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Author(s) application/pdf Springer Berlin Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| spellingShingle | Wang, Shouyi Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Murty, Sujata A. Nguyen, Hung T. T. Buckley, Brendan M. Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales |
| title | Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales |
| title_full | Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales |
| title_short | Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales |
| title_sort | quantifying the internal and external drivers of southeast asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/156874 |
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