Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings
Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2005
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| Online Access: | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a126 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29791 |
| _version_ | 1811087289170788352 |
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| author | Forest, Chris Eliot. Stone, Peter H. Sokolov, Andrei P. |
| author_facet | Forest, Chris Eliot. Stone, Peter H. Sokolov, Andrei P. |
| author_sort | Forest, Chris Eliot. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:43:27Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/29791 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:43:27Z |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/297912019-04-12T08:25:37Z Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Forest, Chris Eliot. Stone, Peter H. Sokolov, Andrei P. Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deep-ocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.4 to 9.2 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s decade shifted towards positive values to compensate for the now included volcanic forcing with 90% bounds of -0.7 to -0.16 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is also reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.25 to 7.3 cm2/s. This upper bound implies that many coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently. This work was supported in part by the NOAA Climate Change Data and Detection Program with support from DOE, the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT, and the Office of Science (BER) DOE Grant No.DE-FG02-93ER61677. 2005-11-18T16:03:35Z 2005-11-18T16:03:35Z 2005-09 Technical Report http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a126 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29791 Report no. 126 126 894323 bytes application/pdf application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | Forest, Chris Eliot. Stone, Peter H. Sokolov, Andrei P. Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings |
| title | Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings |
| title_full | Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings |
| title_fullStr | Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings |
| title_short | Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings |
| title_sort | estimated pdfs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings |
| url | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a126 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29791 |
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