The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector
This paper deals with the background, development and calibration of a model of innovation-diffusion, designed to help allocate government field test and demonstration resources in support of a photovoltaic technology across sectors, regions and over time. The paper reviews current work in the area...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
MIT Energy Laboratory
2006
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31285 |
| _version_ | 1826209275819589632 |
|---|---|
| author | Lilien, Gary Louis |
| author_facet | Lilien, Gary Louis |
| author_sort | Lilien, Gary Louis |
| collection | MIT |
| description | This paper deals with the background, development and calibration of a model of innovation-diffusion, designed to help allocate government field test and demonstration resources in support of a photovoltaic technology across sectors, regions and over time. The paper reviews current work in the area of diffusion and substitution models, and gives a brief review of current theory in the buyer behavior area.
A model is developed, drawing upon concepts in these areas, and its computer implementation is reviewed. The measures needed to calibrate the model are performed in the agricultural-irrigation sector in conjunction with a field installation in Mead, Nebraska.
The analysis of those results indicated that
- only three to four demonstration projects are needed to eliminate new product risk-perception among farmers;
- exposure to a working PV site makes farmers more aware of potential energy savings than does a description of the system;
- key factors associated with PV are
- newness/expense
- complexity of the system and use of untried concepts
- independence from traditional fuel sources.
- exposure to the site has little effect on preference;
- PV is acceptable to a wide range of farmers;
- a premium would be paid for the product.
Additional model developments and the potential of a model-use to support decision-making for government programs are reviewed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:20:15Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/31285 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:20:15Z |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publisher | MIT Energy Laboratory |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/312852019-04-12T07:24:33Z The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector Lilien, Gary Louis Photovoltaic power generation. Irrigation farming. This paper deals with the background, development and calibration of a model of innovation-diffusion, designed to help allocate government field test and demonstration resources in support of a photovoltaic technology across sectors, regions and over time. The paper reviews current work in the area of diffusion and substitution models, and gives a brief review of current theory in the buyer behavior area. A model is developed, drawing upon concepts in these areas, and its computer implementation is reviewed. The measures needed to calibrate the model are performed in the agricultural-irrigation sector in conjunction with a field installation in Mead, Nebraska. The analysis of those results indicated that - only three to four demonstration projects are needed to eliminate new product risk-perception among farmers; - exposure to a working PV site makes farmers more aware of potential energy savings than does a description of the system; - key factors associated with PV are - newness/expense - complexity of the system and use of untried concepts - independence from traditional fuel sources. - exposure to the site has little effect on preference; - PV is acceptable to a wide range of farmers; - a premium would be paid for the product. Additional model developments and the potential of a model-use to support decision-making for government programs are reviewed. 2006-03-06T17:46:05Z 2006-03-06T17:46:05Z 1978 Technical Report 04869433 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31285 en_US MIT-EL 78-004 3405982 bytes application/pdf application/pdf MIT Energy Laboratory |
| spellingShingle | Photovoltaic power generation. Irrigation farming. Lilien, Gary Louis The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector |
| title | The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector |
| title_full | The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector |
| title_fullStr | The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector |
| title_full_unstemmed | The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector |
| title_short | The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector |
| title_sort | diffusion of photovoltaics background modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural irrigation sector |
| topic | Photovoltaic power generation. Irrigation farming. |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31285 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT liliengarylouis thediffusionofphotovoltaicsbackgroundmodelingandinitialreactionoftheagriculturalirrigationsector AT liliengarylouis diffusionofphotovoltaicsbackgroundmodelingandinitialreactionoftheagriculturalirrigationsector |