Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse
Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2006
|
| Online Access: | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a133 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32540 |
| _version_ | 1811079068183953408 |
|---|---|
| author | Webster, Mort David. Scott, Jeffery. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. |
| author_facet | Webster, Mort David. Scott, Jeffery. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. |
| author_sort | Webster, Mort David. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:09:32Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/32540 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:09:32Z |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/325402019-04-12T08:06:32Z Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse Webster, Mort David. Scott, Jeffery. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). Studying the uncertainty in computationally expensive models has required the development of specialized methods, including alternative sampling techniques and response surface approaches. However, existing techniques for response surface development break down when the model being studied exhibits discontinuities or bifurcations. One uncertain variable that exhibits this behavior is the thermohaline circulation (THC) as modeled in three-dimensional general circulation models. This is a critical uncertainty for climate change policy studies. We investigate the development of a response surface for studying uncertainty in THC using the Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method, a stochastic technique using expansions in orthogonal polynomials. We show that this approach is unable to reasonably approximate the model response. We demonstrate an alternative representation that accurately simulates the model’s response, using a basis function with properties similar to the model’s response over the uncertain parameter space. This indicates useful directions for future methodological improvements. This research was supported in part by the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessments Program of the National Science Foundation, Grant ATM-9909139, by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant Nos. DE-FG02-02ER63468 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (JPSPGC). 2006-04-28T19:02:04Z 2006-04-28T19:02:04Z 2006-03 Technical Report http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a133 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32540 Report no. 133 en_US Report no. 133 452835 bytes application/pdf application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | Webster, Mort David. Scott, Jeffery. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse |
| title | Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse |
| title_full | Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse |
| title_short | Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse |
| title_sort | estimating probability distributions from complex models with bifurcations the case of ocean circulation collapse |
| url | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a133 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32540 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT webstermortdavid estimatingprobabilitydistributionsfromcomplexmodelswithbifurcationsthecaseofoceancirculationcollapse AT scottjeffery estimatingprobabilitydistributionsfromcomplexmodelswithbifurcationsthecaseofoceancirculationcollapse AT sokolovandreip estimatingprobabilitydistributionsfromcomplexmodelswithbifurcationsthecaseofoceancirculationcollapse AT stonepeterh estimatingprobabilitydistributionsfromcomplexmodelswithbifurcationsthecaseofoceancirculationcollapse |