Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2005.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | eng |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2006
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/33710 |
| _version_ | 1826195310134689792 |
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| author | Waters, Lonn Augustine |
| author2 | Barry Posen. |
| author_facet | Barry Posen. Waters, Lonn Augustine |
| author_sort | Waters, Lonn Augustine |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2005. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:10:40Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/33710 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:10:40Z |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/337102019-04-10T09:57:10Z Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war Waters, Lonn Augustine Barry Posen. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Political Science. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Political Science. Political Science. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2005. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-85). Operational surprise attacks are large-scale, theater-level intrawar attacks, which result from a country misestimating the capabilities and intentions of its enemies. This thesis analyzes how these massive surprise attacks occur during war when countries should be especially wary of their enemies and vigilant for any evidence of attack. Three hypotheses may explain the frequency and success of operational surprise attacks including operational secrecy, strategic deception, and intelligence failure. Using the Battle of the Bulge in World War II and the Chinese counteroffensive in the Korean War as case studies, this analysis illustrates these three elements and evaluates their relative causal weight in these attacks. This study concludes that each hypothesis is a contributing element to the surprise attack, but that a failure of intelligence is the critical factor. Moreover, this failure stems from a "victory disease" - a belief held by military leaders and their intelligence staff when victory appears near that one's enemy is too weak or has allowed the opportunity to mount a successful counterattack pass. (cont.) Thus, precisely when one's enemy becomes most desperate on the battlefield countries run a greater risk of surprise attack by failing to accurately estimate an enemy's strategic intentions and military capabilities. by Lonn Augustine Waters. S.M. 2006-07-31T15:26:17Z 2006-07-31T15:26:17Z 2005 2005 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/33710 64703431 eng M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 85 leaves 5006999 bytes 5010499 bytes application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Political Science. Waters, Lonn Augustine Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war |
| title | Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war |
| title_full | Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war |
| title_fullStr | Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war |
| title_full_unstemmed | Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war |
| title_short | Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war |
| title_sort | secrecy deception and intelligence failure explaining operational surprise in war |
| topic | Political Science. |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/33710 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT waterslonnaugustine secrecydeceptionandintelligencefailureexplainingoperationalsurpriseinwar |