Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques
Includes bibliographical references (p. 10-11).
| Other Authors: | |
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| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2003
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| Online Access: | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a47 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3600 |
| _version_ | 1826190346203168768 |
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| author2 | Forest, Chris Eliot. |
| author_facet | Forest, Chris Eliot. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Includes bibliographical references (p. 10-11). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:38:55Z |
| id | mit-1721.1/3600 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:38:55Z |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/36002019-04-09T18:58:48Z Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques Forest, Chris Eliot. Allen, Myles R. Stone, Peter H. Sokolov, Andrei P. QC981.8.C5 M58 no.47 Includes bibliographical references (p. 10-11). Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/) Different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models produce significantly different projections of climate change in response to increases in greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere. The main reasons for this disagreement are differences in the sensitivities of the models to external radiative forcing and differences in their rates of heat uptake by the deep ocean. In this study, these properties are constrained by comparing radiosonde-based observations of temperature trends in the free troposphere and lower stratosphere with corresponding simulations of a fast, flexible climate model, using techniques based on optimal fingerprinting. Parameter choices corresponding either to low sensitivity, or to high sensitivity combined with slow oceanic heat uptake are rejected. Nevertheless, a broad range of acceptable model characteristics remains, such that climate change projections from any single model should be treated as only one of a range of possibilities. 2003-10-24T14:56:48Z 2003-10-24T14:56:48Z 1999-04 no. 47 http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a47 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3600 eng Report no. 47 11 p. 352738 bytes application/pdf application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | QC981.8.C5 M58 no.47 Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques |
| title | Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques |
| title_full | Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques |
| title_fullStr | Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques |
| title_full_unstemmed | Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques |
| title_short | Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques |
| title_sort | constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques |
| topic | QC981.8.C5 M58 no.47 |
| url | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a47 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3600 |