Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration
Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-32).
| Other Authors: | |
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| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2003
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| Online Access: | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a30 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3618 |
| _version_ | 1811084464089989120 |
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| author2 | Webster, Mort David. |
| author_facet | Webster, Mort David. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-32). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:51:10Z |
| id | mit-1721.1/3618 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:51:10Z |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/36182019-04-12T08:09:59Z Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration Webster, Mort David. QC981.8.C5 M58 no.30 Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-32). Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/) In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties about future economic growth and technological development, there is a great deal of uncertainty in emissions projections. This paper demonstrates the use of the Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method, an efficient means for propagating uncertainty through large models, to investigate the probability distributions of carbon emissions from the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. From the specific results of the uncertainty analysis, several conclusions with implications for climate policy are given, including the existence of a wider range of possible outcomes than suggested by differences between models, the fact that a "global emissions path through time" does not actually exist, and that the uncertainty in costs and effects of carbon reduction policies differ across regions. 2003-10-24T14:57:20Z 2003-10-24T14:57:20Z 1997-11 no. 30 http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a30 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3618 eng Report no. 30 32 p. 141124 bytes application/pdf application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | QC981.8.C5 M58 no.30 Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration |
| title | Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration |
| title_full | Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration |
| title_short | Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration |
| title_sort | uncertainty in future carbon emissions a preliminary exploration |
| topic | QC981.8.C5 M58 no.30 |
| url | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a30 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3618 |