Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change
Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2007
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| Online Access: | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a148 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38462 |
| _version_ | 1811071623029063680 |
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| author | Scott, Jeffery R. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. Webster, Mort D. |
| author_facet | Scott, Jeffery R. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. Webster, Mort D. |
| author_sort | Scott, Jeffery R. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:54:06Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/38462 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:54:06Z |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/384622019-04-10T19:37:57Z Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change Scott, Jeffery R. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. Webster, Mort D. Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO2 forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO2-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO2-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO2 stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse. This research was supported in part by the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessments Program of the National Science Foundation, Grant ATM-9909139, by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (JPSPGC). 2007-08-15T19:08:01Z 2007-08-15T19:08:01Z 2007-05 Technical Report http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a148 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38462 Report no. 148 en_US Report no. 148 application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | Scott, Jeffery R. Sokolov, Andrei P. Stone, Peter H. Webster, Mort D. Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change |
| title | Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change |
| title_full | Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change |
| title_short | Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change |
| title_sort | relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change |
| url | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a148 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38462 |
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