Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2007.

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bunn, Matthew
Other Authors: Richard K. Lester.
Format: Thesis
Language:eng
Published: Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2008
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/39006
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39006
_version_ 1826196961366114304
author Bunn, Matthew
author2 Richard K. Lester.
author_facet Richard K. Lester.
Bunn, Matthew
author_sort Bunn, Matthew
collection MIT
description Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2007.
first_indexed 2024-09-23T10:40:20Z
format Thesis
id mit-1721.1/39006
institution Massachusetts Institute of Technology
language eng
last_indexed 2024-09-23T10:40:20Z
publishDate 2008
publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology
record_format dspace
spelling mit-1721.1/390062022-01-31T19:59:18Z Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft Bunn, Matthew Richard K. Lester. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology, Management, and Policy Program. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division Technology and Policy Program Technology, Management, and Policy Program. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 419-466). Methods are presented to assess the global risk of nuclear theft and nuclear terrorism, to identify the nuclear facilities and transport legs that pose the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft, and to evaluate policy approaches to strengthening security and accounting for nuclear stockpiles worldwide. First, a qualitative assessment outlines the demand for black-market nuclear weapons and materials; the plausibility of terrorist construction of an improvised nuclear device; the global stocks and flows of nuclear weapons, plutonium, and highly enriched uranium (HEU), with the global distribution of facilities where they exist; and the widely varying standards of physical protection, control, and accounting in place to prevent theft. Particular dangers of nuclear theft in Russia, Pakistan, and from HEU-fueled research reactors are highlighted. Second, a mathematical model of the global risk of nuclear terrorism is presented, with detailed assessments of what is known about the values of each of the parameters, and of policies that could change each of the parameters to reduce risk. (cont.) Third, a methodology for identifying the nuclear facilities and transport legs posing the highest risks of nuclear terrorism is presented, combining the security levels for each facility or transport leg, the levels of threat they face, and the quantity and quality of nuclear weapons or weapons-usable material they contain. Fourth, the global nuclear security system is described and assessed as a complex, large-scale, integrated, open system (CLIOS). Based on past experiences with different policy tools from negotiated international standards to on-the-ground technical cooperation to install improved security equipment, options to improve system performance in reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism are assessed. A final chapter offers conclusions and recommendations. by Matthew Bunn. Ph.D. 2008-11-10T19:53:25Z 2008-11-10T19:53:25Z 2007 2007 Thesis http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/39006 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39006 166577269 eng M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/39006 http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 466 p. application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology
spellingShingle Technology, Management, and Policy Program.
Bunn, Matthew
Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft
title Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft
title_full Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft
title_fullStr Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft
title_full_unstemmed Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft
title_short Guardians at the Gates of Hell : estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism -- and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft
title_sort guardians at the gates of hell estimating the risk of nuclear theft and terrorism and identifying the highest priority risks of nuclear theft
topic Technology, Management, and Policy Program.
url http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/39006
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39006
work_keys_str_mv AT bunnmatthew guardiansatthegatesofhellestimatingtheriskofnucleartheftandterrorismandidentifyingthehighestpriorityrisksofnucleartheft