Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability
The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
2007
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39650 |
| _version_ | 1826199576697110528 |
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| author | Choucri, Nazli Goldsmith, Daniel Madnick, Stuart E. Mistree, Dinsha Morrison, J. Bradley Siegel, Michael |
| author_facet | Choucri, Nazli Goldsmith, Daniel Madnick, Stuart E. Mistree, Dinsha Morrison, J. Bradley Siegel, Michael |
| author_sort | Choucri, Nazli |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of
increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common
processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an
extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent
the nature and dynamics of the ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one
hand, and the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these
‘loads’, on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the
resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small
additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these
insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the
likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:22:26Z |
| format | Working Paper |
| id | mit-1721.1/39650 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:22:26Z |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/396502019-04-10T22:26:59Z Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability Choucri, Nazli Goldsmith, Daniel Madnick, Stuart E. Mistree, Dinsha Morrison, J. Bradley Siegel, Michael Model System Dynamics, State Stability, Terrorists, Insurgency, Regime Legitimacy The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability. 2007-11-30T20:47:29Z 2007-11-30T20:47:29Z 2007-11-30T20:47:29Z Working Paper http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39650 en_US MIT Sloan School of Management Working Paper 4661-07 application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Model System Dynamics, State Stability, Terrorists, Insurgency, Regime Legitimacy Choucri, Nazli Goldsmith, Daniel Madnick, Stuart E. Mistree, Dinsha Morrison, J. Bradley Siegel, Michael Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability |
| title | Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability |
| title_full | Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability |
| title_fullStr | Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability |
| title_short | Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability |
| title_sort | using system dynamics to model and better understand state stability |
| topic | Model System Dynamics, State Stability, Terrorists, Insurgency, Regime Legitimacy |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39650 |
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