Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US
This paper produces the first large-scale estimates of the US health related welfare costs due to climate change. Using the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and two state of the art climate models, the analysis suggests that under a "business as usual" scenario, clim...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
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MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
2009
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/45124 |
| _version_ | 1826198575395110912 |
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| author | Deschênes, Olivier Greenstone, Michael |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Deschênes, Olivier Greenstone, Michael |
| author_sort | Deschênes, Olivier |
| collection | MIT |
| description | This paper produces the first large-scale estimates of the US health related welfare costs due to climate change. Using the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and two state of the art climate models, the analysis suggests that under a "business as usual" scenario, climate change will lead to an increase in the overall us annual mortality rate ranging from 0.5% to 1.7% by the end of the 21st century. These overall estimates are statistically indistinguishable from zero, although there is evidence of statistically significant increases in mortality rates for some subpopulations, particularly infants. As the canonical Becker-Grossman health production function model highlights, the full welfare impact will be reflected in health outcomes and increased consumption of goods that preserve individuals' health. Individuals' likely first compensatory response is increased us of air conditioning; the analysis indicates that climate change would increase US annual residential energy consumption by a statistically significant 15% to 30% ($15 to $35 billion in 2006 dollars) at the end of the century. It seems reasonable to assume that the mortality impacts would be larger without the increased energy consumption. Further, the estimated mortality and energy impacts likely overstate the long-run impacts on these outcomes, since individuals can engage in a wider set of adaptations in the longer run to mitigate costs. Overall, the analysis suggests that the health related welfare costs of higher temperatures due to climate change are likely to be quite modest in the US. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:07:01Z |
| format | Working Paper |
| id | mit-1721.1/45124 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:07:01Z |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publisher | MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/451242019-04-12T09:56:22Z Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US Deschênes, Olivier Greenstone, Michael Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. This paper produces the first large-scale estimates of the US health related welfare costs due to climate change. Using the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and two state of the art climate models, the analysis suggests that under a "business as usual" scenario, climate change will lead to an increase in the overall us annual mortality rate ranging from 0.5% to 1.7% by the end of the 21st century. These overall estimates are statistically indistinguishable from zero, although there is evidence of statistically significant increases in mortality rates for some subpopulations, particularly infants. As the canonical Becker-Grossman health production function model highlights, the full welfare impact will be reflected in health outcomes and increased consumption of goods that preserve individuals' health. Individuals' likely first compensatory response is increased us of air conditioning; the analysis indicates that climate change would increase US annual residential energy consumption by a statistically significant 15% to 30% ($15 to $35 billion in 2006 dollars) at the end of the century. It seems reasonable to assume that the mortality impacts would be larger without the increased energy consumption. Further, the estimated mortality and energy impacts likely overstate the long-run impacts on these outcomes, since individuals can engage in a wider set of adaptations in the longer run to mitigate costs. Overall, the analysis suggests that the health related welfare costs of higher temperatures due to climate change are likely to be quite modest in the US. 2009-04-09T20:05:10Z 2009-04-09T20:05:10Z 2007 Working Paper 2007-007 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/45124 244632483 MIT-CEEPR (Series) ; 07-007WP. 42, [15] p application/pdf MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research |
| spellingShingle | Deschênes, Olivier Greenstone, Michael Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US |
| title | Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US |
| title_full | Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US |
| title_fullStr | Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US |
| title_short | Climate change, mortality, and adaptation : evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US |
| title_sort | climate change mortality and adaptation evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the us |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/45124 |
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