Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios
This paper discusses how two sets of emissions scenarios, generated using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework, were used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In particular it discusses how the scenarios were specified, what roles models played in developing the...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
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MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
2009
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50203 |
| _version_ | 1811083089479204864 |
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| author | Margolis, Robert M. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Margolis, Robert M. |
| author_sort | Margolis, Robert M. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | This paper discusses how two sets of emissions scenarios, generated using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework, were used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In particular it discusses how the scenarios were specified, what roles models played in developing the scenarios, and how the scenarios were interpreted by participants in the IPCC process. It draws on the results of interviews conducted with 14 participants in the IPCC process. After looking at how both sets of IPCC emissions scenarios were defined and interpreted it is clear that analysts need to explore the effects of policies in the context of uncertainty. Thus, instead of testing policy options on a single future and/or generating a range of possible futures in the absence of policy intervention, analysts need to investigate the effectiveness of various policy options across an entire set of possible futures. Conducting this sort of analysis would be an important step beyond the IPCC emissions scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:21:15Z |
| format | Working Paper |
| id | mit-1721.1/50203 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:21:15Z |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publisher | MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/502032019-04-11T05:55:40Z Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios Margolis, Robert M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. This paper discusses how two sets of emissions scenarios, generated using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework, were used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In particular it discusses how the scenarios were specified, what roles models played in developing the scenarios, and how the scenarios were interpreted by participants in the IPCC process. It draws on the results of interviews conducted with 14 participants in the IPCC process. After looking at how both sets of IPCC emissions scenarios were defined and interpreted it is clear that analysts need to explore the effects of policies in the context of uncertainty. Thus, instead of testing policy options on a single future and/or generating a range of possible futures in the absence of policy intervention, analysts need to investigate the effectiveness of various policy options across an entire set of possible futures. Conducting this sort of analysis would be an important step beyond the IPCC emissions scenarios. Supported by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. 2009-12-15T23:59:50Z 2009-12-15T23:59:50Z 1992 Working Paper 92011 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50203 35719947 MIT-CEEPR (Series) ; 92-011WP. 27 p application/pdf MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research |
| spellingShingle | Margolis, Robert M. Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios |
| title | Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios |
| title_full | Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios |
| title_short | Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios |
| title_sort | interpreting the ipcc emisions scenarios |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50203 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT margolisrobertm interpretingtheipccemisionsscenarios |