Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand
Our goal is to evaluate crop yield impacts from likely climate changes for Southeast Asia. To do so we link soil science crop modeling, weather simulators, and global climate change modeling into an integrated economic model of multi-stage rice production. The economic model is estimated with det...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
American Economic Association
2010
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/51995 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1528-8102 |
| _version_ | 1811083724188549120 |
|---|---|
| author | Felkner, John S. Tazhibayeva, Kamilya Townsend, Robert |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Felkner, John S. Tazhibayeva, Kamilya Townsend, Robert |
| author_sort | Felkner, John S. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Our goal is to evaluate crop yield impacts from likely climate changes for Southeast Asia.
To do so we link soil science crop modeling, weather simulators, and global climate change
modeling into an integrated economic model of multi-stage rice production. The economic
model is estimated with detailed monthly data on inputs, operations, and environmental data over
a five year period. We then forecast impacts under two different future economic scenarios, one
assuming high future global anthropogenic pollution emissions, and the other assuming low. We
compare results of the integrated economic model with those of a biophysical model, inputting
into both the stochastic realizations of a weather generator, calibrated against the present, no
climate benchmark and against the two climate mild and severe climate change scenarios. The
more realistic forecasts from socio economic model thus include important farmer behavioral/
mitigation strategies. We discuss both aggregate/average impacts as well heterogeneity in
response. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:38:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/51995 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:38:06Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | American Economic Association |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/519952022-09-28T09:05:22Z Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand Felkner, John S. Tazhibayeva, Kamilya Townsend, Robert Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Townsend, Robert Townsend, Robert Our goal is to evaluate crop yield impacts from likely climate changes for Southeast Asia. To do so we link soil science crop modeling, weather simulators, and global climate change modeling into an integrated economic model of multi-stage rice production. The economic model is estimated with detailed monthly data on inputs, operations, and environmental data over a five year period. We then forecast impacts under two different future economic scenarios, one assuming high future global anthropogenic pollution emissions, and the other assuming low. We compare results of the integrated economic model with those of a biophysical model, inputting into both the stochastic realizations of a weather generator, calibrated against the present, no climate benchmark and against the two climate mild and severe climate change scenarios. The more realistic forecasts from socio economic model thus include important farmer behavioral/ mitigation strategies. We discuss both aggregate/average impacts as well heterogeneity in response. Templeton Foundation National Institute of Child Health and Human Development National Science Foundation 2010-03-03T14:21:24Z 2010-03-03T14:21:24Z 2009-05 2009-01 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/SubmittedJournalArticle 0002-8282 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/51995 Felkner, John, Kamilya Tazhibayeva, and Robert Townsend. 2009. "Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand." American Economic Review, 99(2): 205–10. DOI:10.1257/aer.99.2.205 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1528-8102 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.2.205 American Economic Review Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Economic Association Robert Townsend |
| spellingShingle | Felkner, John S. Tazhibayeva, Kamilya Townsend, Robert Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand |
| title | Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand |
| title_full | Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand |
| title_short | Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on rice production in thailand |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/51995 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1528-8102 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT felknerjohns impactofclimatechangeonriceproductioninthailand AT tazhibayevakamilya impactofclimatechangeonriceproductioninthailand AT townsendrobert impactofclimatechangeonriceproductioninthailand |