Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents
Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2009.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | eng |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2010
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/53097 |
| _version_ | 1826195008307331072 |
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| author | Chang, Wendy, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| author2 | Thomas W. Malone. |
| author_facet | Thomas W. Malone. Chang, Wendy, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| author_sort | Chang, Wendy, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2009. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:05:19Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/53097 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:05:19Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/530972019-04-10T17:13:38Z Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents Prediction markets with automated trading agent participation Chang, Wendy, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Thomas W. Malone. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 59). In this work I study the interaction of sophisticated trading agents with simpler agents in a prediction market. The goal is to simulate markets with both human and computer agents, and investigate ways to maximize the performance of these markets. I start with the neural net-based agent that is currently used in CCI's collective prediction experiments on football plays. By tuning their training and risk affinity, I configure a "smart" agent to represent the sophisticated computer traders. I implement three types of simple agents to approximate human traders - two are rule based, and one uses aggregate human data from lab experiments. By exploring different combinations of smart versus simple agents, I showed that it is possible for mixes of agents to outperform either types alone. This result is consistent with the larger goal of the collective prediction project, which is to show that humans and computer agents combined in a prediction market can do better than either alone. by Wendy Chang. M.Eng. 2010-03-25T15:00:36Z 2010-03-25T15:00:36Z 2009 2009 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/53097 502428301 eng M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 59 p. application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. Chang, Wendy, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents |
| title | Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents |
| title_full | Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents |
| title_fullStr | Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents |
| title_short | Simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents |
| title_sort | simulating prediction markets that include human and automated agents |
| topic | Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/53097 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT changwendymengmassachusettsinstituteoftechnology simulatingpredictionmarketsthatincludehumanandautomatedagents AT changwendymengmassachusettsinstituteoftechnology predictionmarketswithautomatedtradingagentparticipation |