Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis
Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Meteorological Society
2010
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54738 |
| _version_ | 1826191615607177216 |
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| author | Dommenget, Dietmar Jansen, Malte Friedrich |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Dommenget, Dietmar Jansen, Malte Friedrich |
| author_sort | Dommenget, Dietmar |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due to the response to El Niño. It is shown in this note that a simple statistical model that treats the Indian Ocean as a red noise process forced by tropical Pacific SST shows forecast skills comparable to those of recent general circulation model studies. The results also indicate that some of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean SST predictability in recent studies may indeed be beyond the skill of the simple model proposed in this note, indicating that dynamics in the Indian Ocean may have caused this improved predictability in this region. The model further indicates that the IOD index may be the least predictable index of Indian Ocean SST variability. The model is proposed as a null hypothesis for Indian Ocean SST predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:58:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/54738 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:58:40Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/547382022-09-30T12:34:21Z Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis Dommenget, Dietmar Jansen, Malte Friedrich Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Jansen, Malte Friedrich Jansen, Malte Friedrich Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due to the response to El Niño. It is shown in this note that a simple statistical model that treats the Indian Ocean as a red noise process forced by tropical Pacific SST shows forecast skills comparable to those of recent general circulation model studies. The results also indicate that some of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean SST predictability in recent studies may indeed be beyond the skill of the simple model proposed in this note, indicating that dynamics in the Indian Ocean may have caused this improved predictability in this region. The model further indicates that the IOD index may be the least predictable index of Indian Ocean SST variability. The model is proposed as a null hypothesis for Indian Ocean SST predictions. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Project DO1038/2-1) 2010-05-10T15:22:16Z 2010-05-10T15:22:16Z 2009-04 2008-09 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0894-8755 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54738 Dommenget, Dietmar, and Malte Jansen. “Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis.” Journal of Climate 22.18 (2009): 4930-4938. © 2009 American Meteorological Society. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2846.1 Journal of Climate Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society |
| spellingShingle | Dommenget, Dietmar Jansen, Malte Friedrich Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis |
| title | Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis |
| title_full | Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis |
| title_fullStr | Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis |
| title_short | Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis |
| title_sort | predictions of indian ocean sst indices with a simple statistical model a null hypothesis |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54738 |
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