The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmosp...
| Principais autores: | , |
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| Formato: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | en_US |
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United States National Academy of Sciences
2010
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| Acesso em linha: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54797 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1748-0816 |
| _version_ | 1826194076234416128 |
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| author | Schneider, Tapio O'Gorman, Paul |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Schneider, Tapio O'Gorman, Paul |
| author_sort | Schneider, Tapio |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:50:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/54797 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:50:08Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | United States National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/547972024-05-15T03:22:15Z The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change Schneider, Tapio O'Gorman, Paul Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences O'Gorman, Paul A. O'Gorman, Paul Ambrose Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change. National Science Foundation (Grant ATM-0450059) David and Lucile Packard Fellowship 2010-05-14T20:04:37Z 2010-05-14T20:04:37Z 2009-07 2009-03 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1091-6490 0027-8424 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54797 O'Gorman, Paul A, and Tapio Schneider. “The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106.35 (2009): 14773-14777. © 2009 National Academy of Sciences https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1748-0816 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf United States National Academy of Sciences PNAS |
| spellingShingle | Schneider, Tapio O'Gorman, Paul The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change |
| title | The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change |
| title_full | The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change |
| title_fullStr | The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change |
| title_short | The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change |
| title_sort | physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st century climate change |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54797 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1748-0816 |
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