A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans
A simple model is developed that predicts climatological rainfall, vertical motion, and diabatic heating profiles over the tropical oceans given the sea surface temperature (SST), using statistical relationships deduced from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The model allows for two modes of var...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Meteorological Society
2010
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/57449 |
| _version_ | 1811075794900877312 |
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| author | Back, Larissa E. Bretherton, Christopher S. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Back, Larissa E. Bretherton, Christopher S. |
| author_sort | Back, Larissa E. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | A simple model is developed that predicts climatological rainfall, vertical motion, and diabatic heating profiles over the tropical oceans given the sea surface temperature (SST), using statistical relationships deduced from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The model allows for two modes of variability in the vertical motion profiles: a shallow mode responsible for all “boundary layer” convergence between 850 hPa and the surface, and a deep mode with no boundary layer convergence. The model is based on the argument expressed in the authors’ companion paper that boundary layer convergence can be usefully viewed as a forcing on deep convection, not just a result thereof. The shallow mode is either specified from satellite observations or modeled using a simple mixed-layer model that has SST as well as 850-hPa geopotential height, winds, and temperature as boundary conditions. The deep-mode amplitude is empirically shown to be proportional to a simple measure of conditional instability in convecting regions, and is determined by the constraint that radiative cooling must balance adiabatic warming in subsidence regions. This two-mode model is tested against a reanalysis-derived dry static energy budget and in a reanalysis-independent framework based on satellite-derived surface convergence and using SST as a proxy for conditional instability. It can predict the observed annual mean and seasonal cycle of rainfall, vertical motion, and diabatic heating profiles across the tropical oceans with significantly more skill than optimized predictions using a thresholded linear relationship with SST. In most warm-ocean regions, significant rainfall only occurs in regions of monthly-mean boundary layer convergence. In such regions, deep-mode amplitude and rainfall increase linearly with SST, with an additional rainfall contribution from the shallow mode directly tied to boundary layer convergence. This second contribution is significant mainly in the east and central Pacific ITCZ, where it is responsible for that region’s “bottom-heavy” vertical-velocity, diabatic heating, and cloud profiles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:11:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/57449 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:11:59Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/574492022-09-26T16:23:54Z A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans Back, Larissa E. Bretherton, Christopher S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Back, Larissa E. Back, Larissa E. A simple model is developed that predicts climatological rainfall, vertical motion, and diabatic heating profiles over the tropical oceans given the sea surface temperature (SST), using statistical relationships deduced from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The model allows for two modes of variability in the vertical motion profiles: a shallow mode responsible for all “boundary layer” convergence between 850 hPa and the surface, and a deep mode with no boundary layer convergence. The model is based on the argument expressed in the authors’ companion paper that boundary layer convergence can be usefully viewed as a forcing on deep convection, not just a result thereof. The shallow mode is either specified from satellite observations or modeled using a simple mixed-layer model that has SST as well as 850-hPa geopotential height, winds, and temperature as boundary conditions. The deep-mode amplitude is empirically shown to be proportional to a simple measure of conditional instability in convecting regions, and is determined by the constraint that radiative cooling must balance adiabatic warming in subsidence regions. This two-mode model is tested against a reanalysis-derived dry static energy budget and in a reanalysis-independent framework based on satellite-derived surface convergence and using SST as a proxy for conditional instability. It can predict the observed annual mean and seasonal cycle of rainfall, vertical motion, and diabatic heating profiles across the tropical oceans with significantly more skill than optimized predictions using a thresholded linear relationship with SST. In most warm-ocean regions, significant rainfall only occurs in regions of monthly-mean boundary layer convergence. In such regions, deep-mode amplitude and rainfall increase linearly with SST, with an additional rainfall contribution from the shallow mode directly tied to boundary layer convergence. This second contribution is significant mainly in the east and central Pacific ITCZ, where it is responsible for that region’s “bottom-heavy” vertical-velocity, diabatic heating, and cloud profiles. United States Department of Energy. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (Grant DE-FG02-05ER63959) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (Grant NA06OAR4310055 ) 2010-07-23T14:52:35Z 2010-07-23T14:52:35Z 2009-06 2007-12 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/57449 Back, Larissa E, and Christopher S Bretherton. “A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans.” Journal of Climate 22.23 (2009): 6477-6497. © 2010 American Meteorological Society. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2393.1 Journal of Climate Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society |
| spellingShingle | Back, Larissa E. Bretherton, Christopher S. A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans |
| title | A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans |
| title_full | A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans |
| title_fullStr | A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans |
| title_short | A Simple Model of Climatological Rainfall and Vertical Motion Patterns over the Tropical Oceans |
| title_sort | simple model of climatological rainfall and vertical motion patterns over the tropical oceans |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/57449 |
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