Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program
Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investi- gates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the ef- fects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program tha...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
American Statistical Association
2010
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59447 |
| _version_ | 1811084590570274816 |
|---|---|
| author | Abadie, Alberto Diamond, Alexis Hainmueller, Jens |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Abadie, Alberto Diamond, Alexis Hainmueller, Jens |
| author_sort | Abadie, Alberto |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investi-
gates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies.
We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the ef-
fects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California
implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco
consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic con-
trol region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per capita cigarette sales
in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the
absence of Proposition 99. Using new inferential methods proposed in this ar-
ticle, we demonstrate the signi¯cance of our estimates. Given that many policy
interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate
level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate
units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative
case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression
methods are not appropriate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:53:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/59447 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:53:32Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | American Statistical Association |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/594472022-10-01T11:44:39Z Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program Abadie, Alberto Diamond, Alexis Hainmueller, Jens Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Hainmueller, Jens Hainmueller, Jens Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investi- gates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the ef- fects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic con- trol region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Using new inferential methods proposed in this ar- ticle, we demonstrate the signi¯cance of our estimates. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate. National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant SES-0350645) 2010-10-21T15:54:32Z 2010-10-21T15:54:32Z 2010-06 2009-06 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0162-1459 1537-274X http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59447 Alberto Abadie, Alexis Diamond, Jens Hainmueller. Journal of the American Statistical Association. June 1, 2010, 105(490): 493-505. doi:10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746 Journal of the American Statistical Association Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ application/pdf American Statistical Association MIT web domain |
| spellingShingle | Abadie, Alberto Diamond, Alexis Hainmueller, Jens Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program |
| title | Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program |
| title_full | Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program |
| title_fullStr | Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program |
| title_full_unstemmed | Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program |
| title_short | Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program |
| title_sort | synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of california s tobacco control program |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59447 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT abadiealberto syntheticcontrolmethodsforcomparativecasestudiesestimatingtheeffectofcaliforniastobaccocontrolprogram AT diamondalexis syntheticcontrolmethodsforcomparativecasestudiesestimatingtheeffectofcaliforniastobaccocontrolprogram AT hainmuellerjens syntheticcontrolmethodsforcomparativecasestudiesestimatingtheeffectofcaliforniastobaccocontrolprogram |