The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict
The diversionary hypothesis offers a powerful alternative to rationalist explanations of war based on the state as a unitary actor. Most recently, it has been used to explain why democratizing states are more likely to initiate the use of force. In the past two decades, however, quantitative tests h...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
2010
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59524 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5831-8949 |
| _version_ | 1826205750782853120 |
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| author | Fravel, Maris Taylor |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Fravel, Maris Taylor |
| author_sort | Fravel, Maris Taylor |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The diversionary hypothesis offers a powerful alternative to rationalist explanations of war based on the state as a unitary actor. Most recently, it has been used to explain why democratizing states are more likely to initiate the use of force. In the past two decades, however, quantitative tests have produced mixed and often contradictory empirical results regarding the relationship between domestic unrest and external conflict. This article uses a modified “most likely” case study research design to test the hypothesis. Examination of Argentina's seizure of the Falkland Islands and Turkey's invasion of Cyprus, two cases that should be easy for diversion to explain, provide surprisingly little empirical support for the hypothesis, raising doubts about its wider validity as well as the relationship between democratization and war. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:18:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/59524 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:18:12Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group, LLC |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/595242022-10-01T14:24:13Z The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict Fravel, Maris Taylor Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Security Studies Program Fravel, M. Taylor Fravel, M. Taylor The diversionary hypothesis offers a powerful alternative to rationalist explanations of war based on the state as a unitary actor. Most recently, it has been used to explain why democratizing states are more likely to initiate the use of force. In the past two decades, however, quantitative tests have produced mixed and often contradictory empirical results regarding the relationship between domestic unrest and external conflict. This article uses a modified “most likely” case study research design to test the hypothesis. Examination of Argentina's seizure of the Falkland Islands and Turkey's invasion of Cyprus, two cases that should be easy for diversion to explain, provide surprisingly little empirical support for the hypothesis, raising doubts about its wider validity as well as the relationship between democratization and war. 2010-10-26T17:47:50Z 2010-10-26T17:47:50Z 2010-05 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0963-6412 1556-1852 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59524 Fravel, M. Taylor. "The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict" Security Studies 19.2 (2010). 26 Oct. 2010 © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5831-8949 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09636411003795731 Security Studies Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ application/pdf Taylor & Francis Group, LLC MIT web domain |
| spellingShingle | Fravel, Maris Taylor The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict |
| title | The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict |
| title_full | The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict |
| title_fullStr | The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict |
| title_short | The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict |
| title_sort | limits of diversion rethinking internal and external conflict |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/59524 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5831-8949 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fravelmaristaylor thelimitsofdiversionrethinkinginternalandexternalconflict AT fravelmaristaylor limitsofdiversionrethinkinginternalandexternalconflict |