Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration
The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
2010
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/60285 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4421-5110 |
| Summary: | The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system time lines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and time lines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential time lines. |
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