Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War
Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on aver...
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Economic Association
2011
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/61324 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1918-4631 |
| _version_ | 1826209784548818944 |
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| author | Jones, Benjamin F. Olken, Benjamin A. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Jones, Benjamin F. Olken, Benjamin A. |
| author_sort | Jones, Benjamin F. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history. (JEL D72, N40, O17) |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:30:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/61324 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:30:12Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | American Economic Association |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/613242022-09-29T09:40:37Z Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War Jones, Benjamin F. Olken, Benjamin A. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Olken, Benjamin A. Olken, Benjamin A. Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history. (JEL D72, N40, O17) 2011-02-24T15:42:01Z 2011-02-24T15:42:01Z 2009-07 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1945-7715 1945-7707 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/61324 Jones, Benjamin F., and Benjamin A. Olken. 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1(2): 55–87. © 2009 AEA https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1918-4631 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.1.2.55 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Economic Association MIT web domain |
| spellingShingle | Jones, Benjamin F. Olken, Benjamin A. Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War |
| title | Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War |
| title_full | Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War |
| title_fullStr | Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War |
| title_short | Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War |
| title_sort | hit or miss the effect of assassinations on institutions and war |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/61324 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1918-4631 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jonesbenjaminf hitormisstheeffectofassassinationsoninstitutionsandwar AT olkenbenjamina hitormisstheeffectofassassinationsoninstitutionsandwar |