Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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Nature Publishing Group
2011
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62558 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| _version_ | 1811085164143443968 |
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| author | Knutson, Thomas R. McBride, John L. Chan, Johnny Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Holland, Greg Landsea, Chris Held, Isaac M. Kossin, James P. Srivastava, A. K. Sugi, Masato |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Knutson, Thomas R. McBride, John L. Chan, Johnny Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Holland, Greg Landsea, Chris Held, Isaac M. Kossin, James P. Srivastava, A. K. Sugi, Masato |
| author_sort | Knutson, Thomas R. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:03:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/62558 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:03:51Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/625582021-09-09T17:00:58Z Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Knutson, Thomas R. McBride, John L. Chan, Johnny Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Holland, Greg Landsea, Chris Held, Isaac M. Kossin, James P. Srivastava, A. K. Sugi, Masato Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Emanuel, Kerry Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies. West Australian Government Indian Ocean Climate Initiative 2011-04-28T19:57:54Z 2011-04-28T19:57:54Z 2010-02 2010-01 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1752-0908 1752-0894 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62558 Knutson, Thomas R. et al. “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.” Nature Geosci 3.3 (2010) : 157-163. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NGEO779 Nature Geoscience Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf Nature Publishing Group Prof. Emanuel via Chris Sherratt |
| spellingShingle | Knutson, Thomas R. McBride, John L. Chan, Johnny Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Holland, Greg Landsea, Chris Held, Isaac M. Kossin, James P. Srivastava, A. K. Sugi, Masato Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change |
| title | Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change |
| title_full | Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change |
| title_short | Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change |
| title_sort | tropical cyclones and climate change |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62558 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
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