Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City
Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States. We apply a model-based risk assessment methodology to investigate hurricane storm surge risk for New York City (NYC). We couple a statistical/deterministic hurricane model with the hydrodynamic model SLOSH (sea, lake, and overland...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Geophysical Union
2011
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62845 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| _version_ | 1811082025031958528 |
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| author | Lin, N, Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Smith, J. A. Vanmarcke, E. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Lin, N, Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Smith, J. A. Vanmarcke, E. |
| author_sort | Lin, N, |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States. We apply a model-based risk assessment methodology to investigate hurricane storm surge risk for New York City (NYC). We couple a statistical/deterministic hurricane model with the hydrodynamic model SLOSH (sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes) to generate a large number of synthetic surge events; the SLOSH model simulations are compared to advanced circulation model simulations. Statistical analysis is carried out on the empirical data. It is observed that the probability distribution of hurricane surge heights at the Battery, NYC, exhibited a heavy tail, which essentially determines the risk of New York City being struck by a catastrophic coastal flood event. The peaks-over-threshold method with the generalized Pareto distribution is applied to estimate the upper tail of the surge heights. The resulting return periods of surge heights are consistent with those of other studies for the New York area. This storm surge risk assessment methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and can be extended to consider the effect of future climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:55:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/62845 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:55:52Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/628452022-09-27T22:56:24Z Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City Lin, N, Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Smith, J. A. Vanmarcke, E. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States. We apply a model-based risk assessment methodology to investigate hurricane storm surge risk for New York City (NYC). We couple a statistical/deterministic hurricane model with the hydrodynamic model SLOSH (sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes) to generate a large number of synthetic surge events; the SLOSH model simulations are compared to advanced circulation model simulations. Statistical analysis is carried out on the empirical data. It is observed that the probability distribution of hurricane surge heights at the Battery, NYC, exhibited a heavy tail, which essentially determines the risk of New York City being struck by a catastrophic coastal flood event. The peaks-over-threshold method with the generalized Pareto distribution is applied to estimate the upper tail of the surge heights. The resulting return periods of surge heights are consistent with those of other studies for the New York area. This storm surge risk assessment methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and can be extended to consider the effect of future climate change. United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Willis Research Network National Science Foundation (U.S.) (CMMI-0653772) 2011-05-19T13:50:36Z 2011-05-19T13:50:36Z 2010-09 2009-12 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0148–0227 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62845 Lin, N., K. A. Emanuel, J. A. Smith, and E. Vanmarcke (2010), Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18121, doi:10.1029/2009JD013630. ©2010 American Geophysical Union https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009jd013630 Journal of Geophysical Research Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Geophysical Union MIT web domain |
| spellingShingle | Lin, N, Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Smith, J. A. Vanmarcke, E. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City |
| title | Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City |
| title_full | Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City |
| title_fullStr | Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City |
| title_short | Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City |
| title_sort | risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for new york city |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62845 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
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