Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts
The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O3)[(O subscript 3)] predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and phot...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
European Geosciences Union / Copernicus
2011
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/65129 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3596-5334 |
| _version_ | 1826198579116507136 |
|---|---|
| author | Bei, Naifang Lei, Wenfang Zavala, M. Molina, Luisa Tan |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Bei, Naifang Lei, Wenfang Zavala, M. Molina, Luisa Tan |
| author_sort | Bei, Naifang |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O3)[(O subscript 3)] predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15 and 29 March 2006) represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O3-North" ["O subscript 3 - North"], "O3-South" ["O subscript 3 - South"]and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O3 [O subscript 3] predictions, including peak time O3 [O subscript 3] concentrations ([O3] [O subscript 3]), horizontal and vertical O3 [O subscript 3] distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O3 [O subscript 3]] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The increasing uncertainties in meteorological fields during peak O3 [O subscript 3] period contribute to the largest unpredictability in O3 [O subscript 3] simulations, while the impacts of wind speeds and PBL height on [O3 [O subscript 3]] are more straightforward and important. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O3 [O subscript 3] predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height; but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:07:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/65129 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:07:04Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | European Geosciences Union / Copernicus |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/651292022-09-27T17:15:20Z Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts Bei, Naifang Lei, Wenfang Zavala, M. Molina, Luisa Tan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Molina, Luisa Tan Molina, Luisa Tan Bei, Naifang Lei, Wenfang The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O3)[(O subscript 3)] predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15 and 29 March 2006) represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O3-North" ["O subscript 3 - North"], "O3-South" ["O subscript 3 - South"]and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O3 [O subscript 3] predictions, including peak time O3 [O subscript 3] concentrations ([O3] [O subscript 3]), horizontal and vertical O3 [O subscript 3] distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O3 [O subscript 3]] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The increasing uncertainties in meteorological fields during peak O3 [O subscript 3] period contribute to the largest unpredictability in O3 [O subscript 3] simulations, while the impacts of wind speeds and PBL height on [O3 [O subscript 3]] are more straightforward and important. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O3 [O subscript 3] predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height; but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions. National Science Foundation (U.S.) (ATM-0810931) Molina Center for Energy and the Environment National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.) 2011-08-12T20:09:56Z 2011-08-12T20:09:56Z 2010-07 2010-06 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1680-7324 1680-7316 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/65129 Bei, N. et al. “Ozone Predictabilities Due to Meteorological Uncertainties in the Mexico City Basin Using Ensemble Forecasts.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10.13 (2010) : 6295-6309. © Author(s) 2010 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3596-5334 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6295-2010 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 application/pdf European Geosciences Union / Copernicus Copernicus |
| spellingShingle | Bei, Naifang Lei, Wenfang Zavala, M. Molina, Luisa Tan Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_full | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_short | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_sort | ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the mexico city basin using ensemble forecasts |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/65129 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3596-5334 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT beinaifang ozonepredictabilitiesduetometeorologicaluncertaintiesinthemexicocitybasinusingensembleforecasts AT leiwenfang ozonepredictabilitiesduetometeorologicaluncertaintiesinthemexicocitybasinusingensembleforecasts AT zavalam ozonepredictabilitiesduetometeorologicaluncertaintiesinthemexicocitybasinusingensembleforecasts AT molinaluisatan ozonepredictabilitiesduetometeorologicaluncertaintiesinthemexicocitybasinusingensembleforecasts |