Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data?
Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2011
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| Online Access: | http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=2154 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/66297 |
| _version_ | 1826207818323066880 |
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| author | Gitiaux, Xavier Reilly, John M. Paltsev, Sergey |
| author_facet | Gitiaux, Xavier Reilly, John M. Paltsev, Sergey |
| author_sort | Gitiaux, Xavier |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:55:26Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/66297 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:55:26Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/662972019-04-12T20:57:20Z Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? Gitiaux, Xavier Reilly, John M. Paltsev, Sergey Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/). The potential future role of biofuels has become an important topic in energy legislation as it is seen as a potential low carbon alternative to conventional fuels. Hence, future yield growth is an important topic from many perspectives, and given the extensions of the period over which data are available a re-evaluation of yields trends is in order. Our approach is to focus on time series analysis, and to improve upon past work by investigating yields of many major crops in many parts of the world. We also apply time series techniques that allow us to test for the persistence of a plateau pattern that has worried analysts, and that provide a better estimate of forecast uncertainty. The general conclusion from this time series analysis of yields is that casual observation or simple linear regression can lead to overconfidence in projections because of the failure to consider the likelihood of structural breaks. This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors. 2011-10-17T18:17:06Z 2011-10-17T18:17:06Z 2011-05 Technical Report http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=2154 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/66297 Report no. 199 en_US ;Report no. 199 An error occurred on the license name. An error occurred getting the license - uri. application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | Gitiaux, Xavier Reilly, John M. Paltsev, Sergey Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? |
| title | Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? |
| title_full | Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? |
| title_fullStr | Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? |
| title_short | Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? |
| title_sort | future yield growth what evidence from historical data |
| url | http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=2154 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/66297 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gitiauxxavier futureyieldgrowthwhatevidencefromhistoricaldata AT reillyjohnm futureyieldgrowthwhatevidencefromhistoricaldata AT paltsevsergey futureyieldgrowthwhatevidencefromhistoricaldata |