The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market.
Mere observation of others' choices can be informative about product quality. This paper develops an individual-level dynamic model of observational learning and applies it to a novel data set from the U.S. kidney market, where transplant candidates on a waiting list sequentially decide whether...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
2011
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67709 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1635-3797 |
| _version_ | 1826202653859774464 |
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| author | Zhang, Juanjuan |
| author2 | Sloan School of Management |
| author_facet | Sloan School of Management Zhang, Juanjuan |
| author_sort | Zhang, Juanjuan |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Mere observation of others' choices can be informative about product quality. This paper develops an individual-level dynamic model of observational learning and applies it to a novel data set from the U.S. kidney market, where transplant candidates on a waiting list sequentially decide whether to accept a kidney offer. We find strong evidence of observational learning: patients draw negative quality inferences from earlier refusals in the queue, thus becoming more inclined towards refusal themselves. This self-reinforcing chain of inferences leads to poor kidney utilization despite the continual shortage in kidney supply. Counterfactual policy simulations show that patients would have made more efficient use of kidneys had the concerns behind earlier refusals been shared. This study yields a set of marketing implications. In particular, we show that observational learning and information sharing shape consumer choices in markedly different ways. Optimal marketing strategies should take into account how consumers learn from others. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:12:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/67709 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:12:37Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/677092022-10-01T08:40:52Z The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market. Zhang, Juanjuan Sloan School of Management Zhang, Juanjuan Zhang, Juanjuan Mere observation of others' choices can be informative about product quality. This paper develops an individual-level dynamic model of observational learning and applies it to a novel data set from the U.S. kidney market, where transplant candidates on a waiting list sequentially decide whether to accept a kidney offer. We find strong evidence of observational learning: patients draw negative quality inferences from earlier refusals in the queue, thus becoming more inclined towards refusal themselves. This self-reinforcing chain of inferences leads to poor kidney utilization despite the continual shortage in kidney supply. Counterfactual policy simulations show that patients would have made more efficient use of kidneys had the concerns behind earlier refusals been shared. This study yields a set of marketing implications. In particular, we show that observational learning and information sharing shape consumer choices in markedly different ways. Optimal marketing strategies should take into account how consumers learn from others. 2011-12-16T19:47:45Z 2011-12-16T19:47:45Z 2009-07 2006-07 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0732-2399 1526-548X http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67709 Zhang, J. “The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the U.S. Kidney Market.” Marketing Science 29 (2009): 315-335. Web. 16 Dec. 2011. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1635-3797 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1090.0500 Marketing Science Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ application/pdf Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Zhang via Alex Caracuzzo |
| spellingShingle | Zhang, Juanjuan The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market. |
| title | The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market. |
| title_full | The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market. |
| title_fullStr | The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market. |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market. |
| title_short | The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the Us Kidney Market. |
| title_sort | sound of silence observational learning in the us kidney market |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67709 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1635-3797 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhangjuanjuan thesoundofsilenceobservationallearningintheuskidneymarket AT zhangjuanjuan soundofsilenceobservationallearningintheuskidneymarket |