Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming
Surveys show most Americans believe global warming is real. But many advocate delaying action until there is more evidence that warming is harmful. The stock and flow structure of the climate, however, means "wait and see" pol...
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| Language: | en_US |
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2002
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/697 |
| _version_ | 1811075587323723776 |
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| author | Sterman, John Booth Sweeney, Linda |
| author_facet | Sterman, John Booth Sweeney, Linda |
| author_sort | Sterman, John |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Surveys show most Americans believe global warming is real. But many advocate
delaying action until there is more evidence that warming is harmful. The stock and
flow structure of the climate, however, means "wait and see" policies guarantee further
warming. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is now higher than any time in the last
420,000 years, and growing faster than any time in the past 20,000 years. The high
concentration of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) generates significant
radiative forcing that contributes to warming. To reduce radiative forcing and the
human contribution to warming, GHG concentrations must fall. To reduce GHG
concentrations, emissions must fall below the rate at which GHGs are removed from
the atmosphere. Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are now roughly double the removal
rate, and the removal rate is projected to fall as natural carbon sinks saturate.
Emissions must therefore fall by more than half even to stabilize CO 2 at present
record levels. Such reductions greatly exceed the Kyoto targets, while the Bush
administration's Clear Skies Initiative calls for continued emissions growth. Does the
public understand these physical facts? We report experiments assessing people's
intuitive understanding of climate change. We presented highly educated graduate
students with descriptions of greenhouse warming drawn from the IPCC?s
nontechnical reports. Subjects were then asked to identify the likely response to
various scenarios for CO 2 emissions or concentrations. The tasks require no
mathematics, only an understanding of stocks and flows and basic facts about climate
change. Overall performance was poor. Subjects often select trajectories that violate
conservation of matter. Many believe temperature responds immediately to changes in
CO 2 emissions or concentrations. Still more believe that stabilizing emissions near
current rates would stabilize the climate, when in fact emissions would continue to
exceed removal, increasing GHG concentrations and radiative forcing. Such beliefs
support wait and see policies, but violate basic laws of physics. We discuss
implications for education and public policy.
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| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:08:52Z |
| id | mit-1721.1/697 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:08:52Z |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/6972019-04-11T10:31:33Z Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming Sterman, John Booth Sweeney, Linda Global Warming Greenhouse gases Surveys show most Americans believe global warming is real. But many advocate delaying action until there is more evidence that warming is harmful. The stock and flow structure of the climate, however, means "wait and see" policies guarantee further warming. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is now higher than any time in the last 420,000 years, and growing faster than any time in the past 20,000 years. The high concentration of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) generates significant radiative forcing that contributes to warming. To reduce radiative forcing and the human contribution to warming, GHG concentrations must fall. To reduce GHG concentrations, emissions must fall below the rate at which GHGs are removed from the atmosphere. Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are now roughly double the removal rate, and the removal rate is projected to fall as natural carbon sinks saturate. Emissions must therefore fall by more than half even to stabilize CO 2 at present record levels. Such reductions greatly exceed the Kyoto targets, while the Bush administration's Clear Skies Initiative calls for continued emissions growth. Does the public understand these physical facts? We report experiments assessing people's intuitive understanding of climate change. We presented highly educated graduate students with descriptions of greenhouse warming drawn from the IPCC?s nontechnical reports. Subjects were then asked to identify the likely response to various scenarios for CO 2 emissions or concentrations. The tasks require no mathematics, only an understanding of stocks and flows and basic facts about climate change. Overall performance was poor. Subjects often select trajectories that violate conservation of matter. Many believe temperature responds immediately to changes in CO 2 emissions or concentrations. Still more believe that stabilizing emissions near current rates would stabilize the climate, when in fact emissions would continue to exceed removal, increasing GHG concentrations and radiative forcing. Such beliefs support wait and see policies, but violate basic laws of physics. We discuss implications for education and public policy. 2002-06-07T17:01:38Z 2002-06-07T17:01:38Z 2002-06-07T17:01:48Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/697 en_US MIT Sloan School of Management Working Paper;4361-02 259608 bytes application/pdf application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Global Warming Greenhouse gases Sterman, John Booth Sweeney, Linda Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming |
| title | Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming |
| title_full | Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming |
| title_fullStr | Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming |
| title_short | Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming |
| title_sort | cloudy skies assessing public understanding of global warming |
| topic | Global Warming Greenhouse gases |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/697 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT stermanjohn cloudyskiesassessingpublicunderstandingofglobalwarming AT boothsweeneylinda cloudyskiesassessingpublicunderstandingofglobalwarming |