Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect?
http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2275
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2012
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70566 |
| _version_ | 1826218108532031488 |
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| author | Gao, X. Schlosser, C.A. Sokolov, A. Walter Anthony, K. Zhuang, Q. Kicklighter, D.W. |
| author_facet | Gao, X. Schlosser, C.A. Sokolov, A. Walter Anthony, K. Zhuang, Q. Kicklighter, D.W. |
| author_sort | Gao, X. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2275 |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T17:14:17Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/70566 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T17:14:17Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/705662019-04-10T13:24:36Z Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect? Gao, X. Schlosser, C.A. Sokolov, A. Walter Anthony, K. Zhuang, Q. Kicklighter, D.W. http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2275 Permafrost degradation is likely enhanced by climate warming. Subsequent landscape subsidence and hydrologic changes support expansion of lakes and wetlands. Their anaerobic environments can act as strong emission sources of methane and thus represent a positive feedback to climate warming. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, which considers the range of policy and uncertainty in climatechange projections, we examine the influence of near-surface permafrost thaw on the prevalence of lakes, its subsequent methane emission, and potential feedback under climate warming. We find that increases in atmospheric CH4 and radiative forcing from increased lake CH4 emissions are small, particularly when weighed against unconstrained human emissions. The additional warming from these methane sources, across the range of climate policy and response, is no greater than 0.1 C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be discernable by 2100 would require at least an order of magnitude larger methaneemission response. Overall, the biogeochemical climate-warming feedback from boreal and Arctic lake emissions is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions. This work was supported under the Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program Grant DE-PS02-08ER08-05. The authors gratefully acknowledge this as well as additional financial support provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants. Development of the IGSM applied in this research is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science (DE-FG02-94ER61937); the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPRI, and other U.S. government agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. 2012-05-10T16:24:42Z 2012-05-10T16:24:42Z 2012-05 Technical Report http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70566 Report no. 218 en_US Joint Program Report Series;218 An error occurred on the license name. An error occurred getting the license - uri. application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | Gao, X. Schlosser, C.A. Sokolov, A. Walter Anthony, K. Zhuang, Q. Kicklighter, D.W. Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect? |
| title | Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect? |
| title_full | Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect? |
| title_fullStr | Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect? |
| title_short | Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect? |
| title_sort | permafrost lakes and climate warming methane feedback what is the worst we can expect |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70566 |
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