A framework for technology forecasting and visualization
This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. While using bibliometric techn...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
2012
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/71808 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9240-2573 |
| _version_ | 1811086235889827840 |
|---|---|
| author | Woon, Wei Lee Henschel, Andreas Madnick, Stuart E. |
| author2 | Sloan School of Management |
| author_facet | Sloan School of Management Woon, Wei Lee Henschel, Andreas Madnick, Stuart E. |
| author_sort | Woon, Wei Lee |
| collection | MIT |
| description | This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. While using bibliometric techniques in this way is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. Firstly, instead of being purely exploratory, the focus of our research has been on developing techniques for detecting technologies that are in the early growth phase, characterized by a rapid increase in the number of relevant publications. Secondly, to increase the reliability of the forecasting effort, we propose the use of automatically generated keyword taxonomies, allowing the growth potentials of subordinate technologies to be aggregated into the overall potential of larger technology categories. A proof-of-concept implementation of each component of the framework is presented, and is used to study the domain of renewable energy technologies. Results from this analysis are presented and discussed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:22:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/71808 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:22:58Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/718082022-10-01T14:53:43Z A framework for technology forecasting and visualization Woon, Wei Lee Henschel, Andreas Madnick, Stuart E. Sloan School of Management Madnick, Stuart E. Madnick, Stuart E. This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. While using bibliometric techniques in this way is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. Firstly, instead of being purely exploratory, the focus of our research has been on developing techniques for detecting technologies that are in the early growth phase, characterized by a rapid increase in the number of relevant publications. Secondly, to increase the reliability of the forecasting effort, we propose the use of automatically generated keyword taxonomies, allowing the growth potentials of subordinate technologies to be aggregated into the overall potential of larger technology categories. A proof-of-concept implementation of each component of the framework is presented, and is used to study the domain of renewable energy technologies. Results from this analysis are presented and discussed. 2012-07-25T18:42:50Z 2012-07-25T18:42:50Z 2010-04 2009-12 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/ConferencePaper 978-1-4244-5698-7 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/71808 Woon, Wei Lee, Andreas Henschel, and Stuart Madnick. “A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization.” IEEE, 2009. 155–159. © Copyright 2009 IEEE https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9240-2573 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/IIT.2009.5413768 International Conference on Innovations in Information Technology, 2009 Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) IEEE |
| spellingShingle | Woon, Wei Lee Henschel, Andreas Madnick, Stuart E. A framework for technology forecasting and visualization |
| title | A framework for technology forecasting and visualization |
| title_full | A framework for technology forecasting and visualization |
| title_fullStr | A framework for technology forecasting and visualization |
| title_full_unstemmed | A framework for technology forecasting and visualization |
| title_short | A framework for technology forecasting and visualization |
| title_sort | framework for technology forecasting and visualization |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/71808 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9240-2573 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT woonweilee aframeworkfortechnologyforecastingandvisualization AT henschelandreas aframeworkfortechnologyforecastingandvisualization AT madnickstuarte aframeworkfortechnologyforecastingandvisualization AT woonweilee frameworkfortechnologyforecastingandvisualization AT henschelandreas frameworkfortechnologyforecastingandvisualization AT madnickstuarte frameworkfortechnologyforecastingandvisualization |