A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants
Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)-- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2012.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | eng |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2012
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72895 |
| _version_ | 1826212445650157568 |
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| author | Leung, Tommy (Tommy Chun Ting) |
| author2 | Ignacio J. Prez Arriaga and Carlos Batlle. |
| author_facet | Ignacio J. Prez Arriaga and Carlos Batlle. Leung, Tommy (Tommy Chun Ting) |
| author_sort | Leung, Tommy (Tommy Chun Ting) |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)-- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2012. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:21:28Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/72895 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:21:28Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/728952019-04-12T20:21:38Z A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants Leung, Tommy (Tommy Chun Ting) Ignacio J. Prez Arriaga and Carlos Batlle. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)-- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2012. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (p. 73-74). The growth of renewables in power systems has reinvigorated research and regulatory interest in reliability analysis algorithms such as the Baleriaux/Booth convolution-based probabilistic production cost (PPC) model. However, while these traditional PPC algorithms can reasonably represent thermal plant availabilities, they do not accurately represent limited energy plants because of their generic treatment of time. In particular, in systems with limited energy plants, convolution-based PPC models tend to underestimate the loss-of-load probability and expected nonserved energy. This thesis illustrates the chronological challenges of the traditional convolution-based PPC, proposes a modification that improves the representation of chronological elements, explores the reliability contribution of LEPs using the new algorithm, and demonstrates two regulatory applications by calculating a capacity payment for an LEP and the expected-load-carrying-capability metric for any generator. To the best knowledge of the author, the introduction of multiple hydro plants with different capacity constraints and the calculations for marginal probabilities, prices, and revenues to a chronological PPC model are novel. by Tommy Leung. S.M.in Technology and Policy 2012-09-13T19:00:12Z 2012-09-13T19:00:12Z 2012 2012 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72895 808482742 eng M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 74 p. application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. Leung, Tommy (Tommy Chun Ting) A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants |
| title | A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants |
| title_full | A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants |
| title_fullStr | A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants |
| title_full_unstemmed | A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants |
| title_short | A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants |
| title_sort | chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants |
| topic | Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72895 |
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