Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage
While many studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes predict an increase in various metrics of Atlantic basin-wide activity, it is less clear that this signal will emerge from background noise in measures of hurricane damage, which depend largely on rare, high-intensity landfalling even...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Meteorological Society
2012
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/75143 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| _version_ | 1811085703021330432 |
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| author | Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author_sort | Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| collection | MIT |
| description | While many studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes predict an increase in various metrics of Atlantic basin-wide activity, it is less clear that this signal will emerge from background noise in measures of hurricane damage, which depend largely on rare, high-intensity landfalling events and are thus highly volatile compared to basin-wide storm metrics. Using a recently developed hurricane synthesizer driven by large-scale meteorological variables derived from global climate models, 1000 artificial 100-yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario A1b. These synthetic hurricanes damage a portfolio of insured property according to an aggregate wind-damage function; damage from flooding is not considered here. Assuming that the hurricane climate changes linearly with time, a 1000-member ensemble of time series of property damage was created. Three of the four climate models used produce increasing damage with time, with the global warming signal emerging on time scales of 40, 113, and 170 yr, respectively. It is pointed out, however, that probabilities of damage increase significantly well before such emergence time scales and it is shown that probability density distributions of aggregate damage become appreciably separated from those of the control climate on time scales as short as 25 yr. For the fourth climate model, damages decrease with time, but the signal is weak. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:14:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/75143 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:14:14Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/751432022-09-28T12:50:04Z Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Emanuel, Kerry Andrew While many studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes predict an increase in various metrics of Atlantic basin-wide activity, it is less clear that this signal will emerge from background noise in measures of hurricane damage, which depend largely on rare, high-intensity landfalling events and are thus highly volatile compared to basin-wide storm metrics. Using a recently developed hurricane synthesizer driven by large-scale meteorological variables derived from global climate models, 1000 artificial 100-yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario A1b. These synthetic hurricanes damage a portfolio of insured property according to an aggregate wind-damage function; damage from flooding is not considered here. Assuming that the hurricane climate changes linearly with time, a 1000-member ensemble of time series of property damage was created. Three of the four climate models used produce increasing damage with time, with the global warming signal emerging on time scales of 40, 113, and 170 yr, respectively. It is pointed out, however, that probabilities of damage increase significantly well before such emergence time scales and it is shown that probability density distributions of aggregate damage become appreciably separated from those of the control climate on time scales as short as 25 yr. For the fourth climate model, damages decrease with time, but the signal is weak. United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant NA090AR4310131) 2012-12-03T17:58:22Z 2012-12-03T17:58:22Z 2011-10 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1948-8327 1948-8335 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/75143 Emanuel, Kerry. “Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage.” Weather, Climate, and Society 3.4 (2011): 261–268. © 2011 American Meteorological Society https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 en_US http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1175/wcas-d-11-00007.1 Weather Climate and Society Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society AMS |
| spellingShingle | Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage |
| title | Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage |
| title_full | Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage |
| title_fullStr | Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage |
| title_short | Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage |
| title_sort | global warming effects on us hurricane damage |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/75143 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT emanuelkerryandrew globalwarmingeffectsonushurricanedamage |