A universal model for mobility and migration patterns
Introduced in its contemporary form in 1946 (ref. 1), but with roots that go back to the eighteenth century2, the gravity law1, 3, 4 is the prevailing framework with which to predict population movement3, 5, 6, cargo shipping volume7 and inter-city phone calls8, 9, as well as bilateral trade flows b...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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Nature Publishing Group
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77896 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8482-0318 |
| _version_ | 1811090159773417472 |
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| author | Simini, Filippo Gonzalez, Marta C. Maritan, Amos Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Simini, Filippo Gonzalez, Marta C. Maritan, Amos Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo |
| author_sort | Simini, Filippo |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Introduced in its contemporary form in 1946 (ref. 1), but with roots that go back to the eighteenth century2, the gravity law1, 3, 4 is the prevailing framework with which to predict population movement3, 5, 6, cargo shipping volume7 and inter-city phone calls8, 9, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations10. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of the phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:35:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/77896 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:35:54Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/778962022-10-01T21:45:28Z A universal model for mobility and migration patterns Simini, Filippo Gonzalez, Marta C. Maritan, Amos Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Gonzalez, Marta C. Introduced in its contemporary form in 1946 (ref. 1), but with roots that go back to the eighteenth century2, the gravity law1, 3, 4 is the prevailing framework with which to predict population movement3, 5, 6, cargo shipping volume7 and inter-city phone calls8, 9, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations10. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of the phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23. U.S. Army Research Laboratory (Agreement Number W911NF-09-2-0053) United States. Office of Naval Research (Agreement N000141010968) U.S. Army Research Laboratory (Agreement W911NF-09-2-0053) James S. McDonnell Foundation (21st Century Initiative in Studying Complex Systems) United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (Award BRBAA08-Per4-C-2-0033) United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (Award WMD BRBAA07-J-2-0035) 2013-03-13T19:40:15Z 2013-03-13T19:40:15Z 2012-02 2011-08 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0028-0836 1476-4687 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77896 Simini, Filippo et al. “A Universal Model for Mobility and Migration Patterns.” Nature 484.7392 (2012): 96–100. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8482-0318 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature10856 Nature Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ application/pdf Nature Publishing Group arXiv |
| spellingShingle | Simini, Filippo Gonzalez, Marta C. Maritan, Amos Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo A universal model for mobility and migration patterns |
| title | A universal model for mobility and migration patterns |
| title_full | A universal model for mobility and migration patterns |
| title_fullStr | A universal model for mobility and migration patterns |
| title_full_unstemmed | A universal model for mobility and migration patterns |
| title_short | A universal model for mobility and migration patterns |
| title_sort | universal model for mobility and migration patterns |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77896 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8482-0318 |
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