Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas
We develop a methodology for the frequency of extreme rainfall intensities caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal areas. The model does not account for landfall effects. This makes the developed framework best suited for open water sites and coastal areas with flat topography. The mean rainfal...
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Geophysical Union (Wiley platform)
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77990 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9099-3023 |
| _version_ | 1811087199220793344 |
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| author | Langousis, Andreas Veneziano, Daniele |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Langousis, Andreas Veneziano, Daniele |
| author_sort | Langousis, Andreas |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We develop a methodology for the frequency of extreme rainfall intensities caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal areas. The model does not account for landfall effects. This makes the developed framework best suited for open water sites and coastal areas with flat topography. The mean rainfall field associated with a TC with maximum tangential wind speed V[subscript max], radius of maximum winds R[subscript max], and translation speed Vt is obtained using a physically based model, whereas rainfall variability at both large scales (from storm to storm) and small scales (due to rainbands and local convection) is modeled statistically. The statistical component is estimated using precipitation radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. Taylor's hypothesis is used to convert spatial rainfall intensity fluctuations to temporal fluctuations at a given location A. The combined physical-statistical model gives the distribution of the maximum rainfall intensity at A during an averaging period D for a TC with characteristics (V[subscript max], R[subscript max], V[subscript t]) that passes at a given distance from A. To illustrate the use of the model for long-term rainfall risk analysis, we formulate a recurrence model for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico that make landfall between longitudes 85° and 95°W. We then use the rainfall and recurrence models to assess the rainfall risk for New Orleans. For return periods of 100 years or more and long averaging durations (D around 12–24 h), tropical cyclones dominate over other rainfall event types, whereas the reverse is true for shorter return periods or shorter averaging durations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:41:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/77990 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:41:37Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (Wiley platform) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/779902022-10-01T16:34:24Z Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas Langousis, Andreas Veneziano, Daniele Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Veneziano, Daniele Langousis, Andreas We develop a methodology for the frequency of extreme rainfall intensities caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal areas. The model does not account for landfall effects. This makes the developed framework best suited for open water sites and coastal areas with flat topography. The mean rainfall field associated with a TC with maximum tangential wind speed V[subscript max], radius of maximum winds R[subscript max], and translation speed Vt is obtained using a physically based model, whereas rainfall variability at both large scales (from storm to storm) and small scales (due to rainbands and local convection) is modeled statistically. The statistical component is estimated using precipitation radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. Taylor's hypothesis is used to convert spatial rainfall intensity fluctuations to temporal fluctuations at a given location A. The combined physical-statistical model gives the distribution of the maximum rainfall intensity at A during an averaging period D for a TC with characteristics (V[subscript max], R[subscript max], V[subscript t]) that passes at a given distance from A. To illustrate the use of the model for long-term rainfall risk analysis, we formulate a recurrence model for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico that make landfall between longitudes 85° and 95°W. We then use the rainfall and recurrence models to assess the rainfall risk for New Orleans. For return periods of 100 years or more and long averaging durations (D around 12–24 h), tropical cyclones dominate over other rainfall event types, whereas the reverse is true for shorter return periods or shorter averaging durations. Alexander S. Onassis Public Benefit Foundation (Scholarship F-ZA 054/2005–2006) 2013-03-26T17:48:57Z 2013-03-26T17:48:57Z 2009-11 2009-05 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0043-1397 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77990 Langousis, Andreas, and Daniele Veneziano. “Long-term Rainfall Risk from Tropical Cyclones in Coastal Areas.” Water Resources Research 45.11 (2009). © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9099-3023 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008wr007624 Water Resources Research Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Geophysical Union (Wiley platform) Other Repository |
| spellingShingle | Langousis, Andreas Veneziano, Daniele Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas |
| title | Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas |
| title_full | Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas |
| title_fullStr | Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas |
| title_short | Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas |
| title_sort | long term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77990 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9099-3023 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT langousisandreas longtermrainfallriskfromtropicalcyclonesincoastalareas AT venezianodaniele longtermrainfallriskfromtropicalcyclonesincoastalareas |