Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk
Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | eng |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78495 |
| _version_ | 1826201048011767808 |
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| author | Gueneau, Arthur |
| author2 | C. Adam Schlosser. |
| author_facet | C. Adam Schlosser. Gueneau, Arthur |
| author_sort | Gueneau, Arthur |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:45:31Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/78495 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:45:31Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/784952019-04-10T18:23:28Z Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk Gueneau, Arthur C. Adam Schlosser. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (p. 113-121). Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework of the MIT Integrated Global System Model, the potential impacts of climate change on crop water stress and the risk implications for policy makers due to underlying uncertainty in climate models. This thesis presents the Community Land Model - Agriculture module (CLM-AG) that models crop growth and water stress. It is a global generic crop model built in the framework of the Community Land Model and was evaluated for maize, cotton and spring wheat. A full climate model, the IGSM-CAM, was first used to force CLM-AG and show the regional disparity of the response to climate change. Some areas like the Midwest or Equatorial Africa benefit from the higher precipitations associated to climate change while others like Europe or Southern Africa see the irrigation need for crops increase. The effect of a mitigation policy appeared contrasted, as water-stress for some areas (including Europe and Africa) is increased if greenhouse gases emissions are limited while for other areas (Central Asia, United States) it is reduced. A second analysis was carried in Central Zambia using uncertainty ensembles. The ensembles demonstrate the notable extent of the uncertainty stemming from different climate sensitivities and different regional patterns in climate models. Crops are impacted differently but a consistent result is that climate mitigation policies reduce uncertainty in crop water stress, making it easier to plan for any anticipated future climate change. by Arthur Gueneau. S.M.in Technology and Policy 2013-04-12T19:29:36Z 2013-04-12T19:29:36Z 2012 2012 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78495 836763672 eng M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 128 p. application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. Gueneau, Arthur Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk |
| title | Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk |
| title_full | Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk |
| title_fullStr | Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk |
| title_full_unstemmed | Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk |
| title_short | Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk |
| title_sort | crop water stress under climate change uncertainty global policy and regional risk |
| topic | Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78495 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gueneauarthur cropwaterstressunderclimatechangeuncertaintyglobalpolicyandregionalrisk |