Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment
We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100 are provided....
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79079 |
| _version_ | 1811070367293243392 |
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| author | Paltsev, Sergey Monier, Erwan Scott, Jeffery Sokolov, Andrei Reilly, John M. |
| author_facet | Paltsev, Sergey Monier, Erwan Scott, Jeffery Sokolov, Andrei Reilly, John M. |
| author_sort | Paltsev, Sergey |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100 are provided. They can be used for a broader climate impact assessment for the US and other regions, with the goal of making it possible to provide a more consistent picture of climate impacts, and how those impacts depend on uncertainty in climate system response and policy choices. The long-term risks, beyond 2050, of climate change can be strongly influenced by policy choices. In the nearer term, the climate we will observe is hard to influence with policy, and what we actually see will be strongly influenced by natural variability and the earth system response to existing greenhouse gases. In the end, the nature of the system is that a strong effect of policy, especially directed toward long-lived GHGs, will lag by 30 to 40 years its implementation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:34:50Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/79079 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:34:50Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/790792019-04-09T18:35:14Z Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment Paltsev, Sergey Monier, Erwan Scott, Jeffery Sokolov, Andrei Reilly, John M. We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100 are provided. They can be used for a broader climate impact assessment for the US and other regions, with the goal of making it possible to provide a more consistent picture of climate impacts, and how those impacts depend on uncertainty in climate system response and policy choices. The long-term risks, beyond 2050, of climate change can be strongly influenced by policy choices. In the nearer term, the climate we will observe is hard to influence with policy, and what we actually see will be strongly influenced by natural variability and the earth system response to existing greenhouse gases. In the end, the nature of the system is that a strong effect of policy, especially directed toward long-lived GHGs, will lag by 30 to 40 years its implementation. This work was partially funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement #XA-83600001. The Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Predictions and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, used in this 12analysis is supported by a consortium of government, industry, and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. For a complete list of sponsors, see: http://globalchange.mit.edu. The 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. 2013-06-10T17:03:54Z 2013-06-10T17:03:54Z 2013-05 Technical Report http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79079 Report 243 en_US MIT Joint Program Report Series;Report 243 application/pdf MIT Joint Program |
| spellingShingle | Paltsev, Sergey Monier, Erwan Scott, Jeffery Sokolov, Andrei Reilly, John M. Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment |
| title | Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment |
| title_full | Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment |
| title_fullStr | Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment |
| title_short | Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment |
| title_sort | integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79079 |
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