Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature
We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. T...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79082 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
| _version_ | 1826190393912328192 |
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| author | Santer, B. D. Painter, J. F. Mears, Carl A. Doutriaux, Charles Caldwell, P. Arblaster, J. M. Cameron-Smith, P. Gillett, Nathan P. Gleckler, Peter J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, J. Stott, P. A. Taylor, K. E. Terray, L. Thorne, P. W. Wehner, M. F. Wentz, F. J. Wigley, T. M. L. Wilcox, L. J. Zou, C.-Z. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Santer, B. D. Painter, J. F. Mears, Carl A. Doutriaux, Charles Caldwell, P. Arblaster, J. M. Cameron-Smith, P. Gillett, Nathan P. Gleckler, Peter J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, J. Stott, P. A. Taylor, K. E. Terray, L. Thorne, P. W. Wehner, M. F. Wentz, F. J. Wigley, T. M. L. Wilcox, L. J. Zou, C.-Z. |
| author_sort | Santer, B. D. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:39:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/79082 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:39:36Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences (U.S.) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/790822022-09-23T13:37:56Z Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature Santer, B. D. Painter, J. F. Mears, Carl A. Doutriaux, Charles Caldwell, P. Arblaster, J. M. Cameron-Smith, P. Gillett, Nathan P. Gleckler, Peter J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, J. Stott, P. A. Taylor, K. E. Terray, L. Thorne, P. W. Wehner, M. F. Wentz, F. J. Wigley, T. M. L. Wilcox, L. J. Zou, C.-Z. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Solomon, Susan We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing. United States. Dept. of Energy (Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344) 2013-06-10T18:17:51Z 2013-06-10T18:17:51Z 2012-11 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0027-8424 1091-6490 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79082 Santer, B. D., J. F. Painter, C. A. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, J. M. Arblaster, P. J. Cameron-Smith, et al. Inaugural Article: Identifying Human Influences on Atmospheric Temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110, no. 1 (January 2, 2013): 26-33. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210514109 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf National Academy of Sciences (U.S.) PNAS |
| spellingShingle | Santer, B. D. Painter, J. F. Mears, Carl A. Doutriaux, Charles Caldwell, P. Arblaster, J. M. Cameron-Smith, P. Gillett, Nathan P. Gleckler, Peter J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, J. Stott, P. A. Taylor, K. E. Terray, L. Thorne, P. W. Wehner, M. F. Wentz, F. J. Wigley, T. M. L. Wilcox, L. J. Zou, C.-Z. Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature |
| title | Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature |
| title_full | Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature |
| title_fullStr | Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature |
| title_short | Inaugural Article: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature |
| title_sort | inaugural article identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79082 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
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