Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia
We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional z...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
MIT Joint Program
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79630 |
| _version_ | 1826204010751721472 |
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| author | Monier, Erwan Sokolov, Andrei Schlosser, Adam Scott, Jeffery Gao, Xiang |
| author_facet | Monier, Erwan Sokolov, Andrei Schlosser, Adam Scott, Jeffery Gao, Xiang |
| author_sort | Monier, Erwan |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:47:24Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/79630 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:47:24Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/796302019-04-10T15:22:07Z Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia Monier, Erwan Sokolov, Andrei Schlosser, Adam Scott, Jeffery Gao, Xiang We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia. We would like to recognize the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) for providing the background that made this study possible. This work was partially funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under grant DE-FG02-94ER61937. The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a number of federal agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. (For the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html). This research used the Evergreen computing cluster at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Evergreen is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. 2013-07-18T20:58:08Z 2013-07-18T20:58:08Z 2013-07-18 Technical Report http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79630 Repor 246 en_US MIT Joint Program Report Series;Report 246 application/pdf MIT Joint Program |
| spellingShingle | Monier, Erwan Sokolov, Andrei Schlosser, Adam Scott, Jeffery Gao, Xiang Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia |
| title | Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia |
| title_full | Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia |
| title_short | Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia |
| title_sort | probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over northern eurasia |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79630 |
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