Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback
Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/83184 |
| _version_ | 1826211090638307328 |
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| author | Gao, Xiang Anthony, Katey Walter Zhuang, Qianlai Kicklighter, David Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei P. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Gao, Xiang Anthony, Katey Walter Zhuang, Qianlai Kicklighter, David Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei P. |
| author_sort | Gao, Xiang |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH[subscript 4] and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:00:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/83184 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:00:24Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/831842022-09-29T12:00:27Z Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback Gao, Xiang Anthony, Katey Walter Zhuang, Qianlai Kicklighter, David Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change Gao, Xiang Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei P. Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH[subscript 4] and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions. United States. Dept. of Energy (Climate Change Prediction Program Grant DE-PS02-08ER08-05) United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Science (Biological and Environmental Research) 2013-12-23T13:47:41Z 2013-12-23T13:47:41Z 2013-07 2013-03 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1748-9326 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/83184 Gao, Xiang, C Adam Schlosser, Andrei Sokolov, Katey Walter Anthony, Qianlai Zhuang, and David Kicklighter. “Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback.” Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 3 (September 1, 2013): 035014. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035014 Environmental Research Letters http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ application/pdf IOP Publishing IOP Publishing |
| spellingShingle | Gao, Xiang Anthony, Katey Walter Zhuang, Qianlai Kicklighter, David Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei P. Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback |
| title | Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback |
| title_full | Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback |
| title_fullStr | Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback |
| title_full_unstemmed | Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback |
| title_short | Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback |
| title_sort | permafrost degradation and methane low risk of biogeochemical climate warming feedback |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/83184 |
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