Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century
Future changes of pan-Arctic land–atmospheric methane (CH[subscript 4]) and carbon dioxide (CO[subscript 2]) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to make our estimates of these carbon exchanges with two contrasting c...
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IOP Publishing
2013
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/83190 |
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author | Zhu, Xudong Zhuang, Qianlai Gao, Xiang Sokolov, Andrei P. Schlosser, Adam |
author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science |
author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Zhu, Xudong Zhuang, Qianlai Gao, Xiang Sokolov, Andrei P. Schlosser, Adam |
author_sort | Zhu, Xudong |
collection | MIT |
description | Future changes of pan-Arctic land–atmospheric methane (CH[subscript 4]) and carbon dioxide (CO[subscript 2]) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to make our estimates of these carbon exchanges with two contrasting climate change scenarios (no-policy versus policy) over the 21st century, by considering (1) a detailed water table dynamics and (2) a permafrost-thawing effect. Our simulations indicate that, under present climate conditions, pan-Arctic terrestrial ecosystems act as a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink of −0.2 Pg CO[subscript 2]-eq. yr[superscript −1], as a result of a CH[subscript 4] source (53 Tg CH4 yr[superscript −1]) and a CO[subscript 2] sink (−0.4 Pg C yr[superscript −1]). In response to warming climate, both CH[subscript 4] emissions and CO[subscript 2] uptakes are projected to increase over the century, but the increasing rates largely depend on the climate change scenario. Under the non-policy scenario, the CH[subscript 4] source and CO[subscript 2] sink are projected to increase by 60% and 75% by 2100, respectively, while the GHG sink does not show a significant trend. Thawing permafrost has a small effect on GHG sink under the policy scenario; however, under the no-policy scenario, about two thirds of the accumulated GHG sink over the 21st century has been offset by the carbon losses as CH[subscript 4] and CO[subscript 2] from thawing permafrost. Over the century, nearly all CO[subscript 2]-induced GHG sink through photosynthesis has been undone by CH[subscript 4]-induced GHG source. This study indicates that increasing active layer depth significantly affects soil carbon decomposition in response to future climate change. The methane emissions considering more detailed water table dynamics continuously play an important role in affecting regional radiative forcing in the pan-Arctic. |
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format | Article |
id | mit-1721.1/83190 |
institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
language | en_US |
last_indexed | 2024-09-23T17:04:16Z |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | IOP Publishing |
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spelling | mit-1721.1/831902022-09-29T23:27:04Z Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century Zhu, Xudong Zhuang, Qianlai Gao, Xiang Sokolov, Andrei P. Schlosser, Adam Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change Gao, Xiang Sokolov, Andrei P. Schlosser, Adam Future changes of pan-Arctic land–atmospheric methane (CH[subscript 4]) and carbon dioxide (CO[subscript 2]) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to make our estimates of these carbon exchanges with two contrasting climate change scenarios (no-policy versus policy) over the 21st century, by considering (1) a detailed water table dynamics and (2) a permafrost-thawing effect. Our simulations indicate that, under present climate conditions, pan-Arctic terrestrial ecosystems act as a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink of −0.2 Pg CO[subscript 2]-eq. yr[superscript −1], as a result of a CH[subscript 4] source (53 Tg CH4 yr[superscript −1]) and a CO[subscript 2] sink (−0.4 Pg C yr[superscript −1]). In response to warming climate, both CH[subscript 4] emissions and CO[subscript 2] uptakes are projected to increase over the century, but the increasing rates largely depend on the climate change scenario. Under the non-policy scenario, the CH[subscript 4] source and CO[subscript 2] sink are projected to increase by 60% and 75% by 2100, respectively, while the GHG sink does not show a significant trend. Thawing permafrost has a small effect on GHG sink under the policy scenario; however, under the no-policy scenario, about two thirds of the accumulated GHG sink over the 21st century has been offset by the carbon losses as CH[subscript 4] and CO[subscript 2] from thawing permafrost. Over the century, nearly all CO[subscript 2]-induced GHG sink through photosynthesis has been undone by CH[subscript 4]-induced GHG source. This study indicates that increasing active layer depth significantly affects soil carbon decomposition in response to future climate change. The methane emissions considering more detailed water table dynamics continuously play an important role in affecting regional radiative forcing in the pan-Arctic. United States. Dept. of Energy. SciDAC Institute on Quantum Simulation of Materials and Nanostructures United States. Dept. of Energy (Abrupt Climate Change) United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Land Use and Land Cover Change Program NASA-NNX09AI26G) United States. Dept. of Energy (DE-FG02-08ER64599) National Science Foundation (U.S.). Division of Information and Intelligent Systems (NSF-1028291) National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319) United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Biological and Environmental Research (Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231) 2013-12-23T14:25:45Z 2013-12-23T14:25:45Z 2013-10 2013-04 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1748-9326 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/83190 Zhu, Xudong, Qianlai Zhuang, Xiang Gao, Andrei Sokolov, and C Adam Schlosser. “Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century.” Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 4 (December 1, 2013): 045003. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045003 Environmental Research Letters http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ application/pdf IOP Publishing IOP Publishing |
spellingShingle | Zhu, Xudong Zhuang, Qianlai Gao, Xiang Sokolov, Andrei P. Schlosser, Adam Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century |
title | Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century |
title_full | Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century |
title_fullStr | Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed | Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century |
title_short | Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century |
title_sort | pan arctic land atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century |
url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/83190 |
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