Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration
The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Published: |
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/84076 |
| _version_ | 1811085368499372032 |
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| author | Roberts, Christopher J. Richards, Matthew G. Ross, Adam M. Rhodes, Donna H. Hastings, Daniel E. |
| author_facet | Roberts, Christopher J. Richards, Matthew G. Ross, Adam M. Rhodes, Donna H. Hastings, Daniel E. |
| author_sort | Roberts, Christopher J. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The long time scales associated with complex system
design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering
methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures.
This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a
parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and
stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes,
available technology, funding levels, and supporting
infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario
planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large
numbers of alternative system timelines is presented. A satellite
radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of
this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader
and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs,
contexts, and timelines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived
scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust
system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating
system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value
delivery across potential timelines. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:08:28Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/84076 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:08:28Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/840762019-04-11T07:29:26Z Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration Roberts, Christopher J. Richards, Matthew G. Ross, Adam M. Rhodes, Donna H. Hastings, Daniel E. scenario planning epoch-era analysis multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE) value robustness The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system timelines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and timelines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential timelines. 2014-01-17T20:14:56Z 2014-01-17T20:14:56Z 2009-03-23 Technical Report Other http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/84076 Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/ application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | scenario planning epoch-era analysis multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE) value robustness Roberts, Christopher J. Richards, Matthew G. Ross, Adam M. Rhodes, Donna H. Hastings, Daniel E. Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration |
| title | Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration |
| title_full | Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration |
| title_fullStr | Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration |
| title_short | Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration |
| title_sort | scenario planning in dynamic multi attribute tradespace exploration |
| topic | scenario planning epoch-era analysis multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE) value robustness |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/84076 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT robertschristopherj scenarioplanningindynamicmultiattributetradespaceexploration AT richardsmatthewg scenarioplanningindynamicmultiattributetradespaceexploration AT rossadamm scenarioplanningindynamicmultiattributetradespaceexploration AT rhodesdonnah scenarioplanningindynamicmultiattributetradespaceexploration AT hastingsdaniele scenarioplanningindynamicmultiattributetradespaceexploration |