Convergence of Expert Opinion via the Wideband Delphi Method: An Application in Cost Estimation Models
This paper discusses the notion of collective intelligence through the application of the Wideband Delphi method as a way to obtain convergence among a group of experts. The specific application is the definition and calibration of cost estimation models that use data collected from experts as pa...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Presentation |
| Published: |
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/84556 |
| Summary: | This paper discusses the notion of collective intelligence through the application of the
Wideband Delphi method as a way to obtain convergence among a group of experts. The
specific application is the definition and calibration of cost estimation models that use data
collected from experts as part of their calibration. Convergence is important in this case because
companies need to commit to cost estimates early in the planning cycle since so many other
decisions are dependent on it. Our results demonstrate that, in most cases, convergence among
experts can be achieved after three rounds of the Wideband Delphi. |
|---|