Medicane risk in a changing climate
Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” are extreme cyclonic windstorms morphologically and physically similar to tropical cyclones. Owing to their potential destructiveness on the islands and continental coastal zones, medicane risk assessment is of paramount importance. With an average frequency o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Geophysical Union
2014
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85621 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| _version_ | 1826214640921608192 |
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| author | Romero, R. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Romero, R. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author_sort | Romero, R. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” are extreme cyclonic windstorms morphologically and physically similar to tropical cyclones. Owing to their potential destructiveness on the islands and continental coastal zones, medicane risk assessment is of paramount importance. With an average frequency of only one to two events per year and given the lack of systematic, multidecadal databases, an objective evaluation of the long-term risk of medicane-induced winds is impractical with standard methods. Also, there is increasing concern about the way these extreme phenomena could change in frequency or intensity as a result of human influences on climate. Here we apply a statistical-deterministic approach that entails the generation of thousands of synthetic storms, thus enabling a statistically robust assessment of the current and future risk. Fewer medicanes but a higher number of violent storms are projected at the end of the century compared to present, suggesting an increased probability of major economic and social impacts as the century progresses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:09:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/85621 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:09:00Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/856212022-09-29T18:32:25Z Medicane risk in a changing climate Romero, R. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” are extreme cyclonic windstorms morphologically and physically similar to tropical cyclones. Owing to their potential destructiveness on the islands and continental coastal zones, medicane risk assessment is of paramount importance. With an average frequency of only one to two events per year and given the lack of systematic, multidecadal databases, an objective evaluation of the long-term risk of medicane-induced winds is impractical with standard methods. Also, there is increasing concern about the way these extreme phenomena could change in frequency or intensity as a result of human influences on climate. Here we apply a statistical-deterministic approach that entails the generation of thousands of synthetic storms, thus enabling a statistically robust assessment of the current and future risk. Fewer medicanes but a higher number of violent storms are projected at the end of the century compared to present, suggesting an increased probability of major economic and social impacts as the century progresses. Spain. Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Grant PR2011-0276) Spain. Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (Grant PR2011-0276) 2014-03-14T15:21:55Z 2014-03-14T15:21:55Z 2013-06 2013-05 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2169897X http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85621 Romero, R., and K. Emanuel. “Medicane Risk in a Changing Climate.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 12 (June 27, 2013): 5992–6001. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50475 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Geophysical Union American Geophysical Union |
| spellingShingle | Romero, R. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Medicane risk in a changing climate |
| title | Medicane risk in a changing climate |
| title_full | Medicane risk in a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | Medicane risk in a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Medicane risk in a changing climate |
| title_short | Medicane risk in a changing climate |
| title_sort | medicane risk in a changing climate |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85621 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT romeror medicaneriskinachangingclimate AT emanuelkerryandrew medicaneriskinachangingclimate |