Emerging local warming signals in observational data
The global average temperature of the Earth has increased, but year-to-year variability in local climates impedes the identification of clear changes in observations and human experience. For a signal to become obvious in data records or in a human lifetime it needs to be greater than the noise of v...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Geophysical Union
2014
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85625 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
| _version_ | 1826207617067778048 |
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| author | Mahlstein, Irina Hegerl, Gabriele Solomon, Susan |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry Mahlstein, Irina Hegerl, Gabriele Solomon, Susan |
| author_sort | Mahlstein, Irina |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The global average temperature of the Earth has increased, but year-to-year variability in local climates impedes the identification of clear changes in observations and human experience. For a signal to become obvious in data records or in a human lifetime it needs to be greater than the noise of variability and thereby lead to a significant shift in the distribution of temperature. We show that locations with the largest amount of warming may not display a clear shift in temperature distributions if the local variability is also large. Based on observational data only we demonstrate that large parts of the Earth have experienced a significant local shift towards warmer temperatures in the summer season, particularly at lower latitudes. We also show that these regions are similar to those that are found to be significant in standard detection methods, thus providing an approach to link locally significant changes more closely to impacts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:52:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/85625 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:52:20Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/856252022-09-28T16:44:36Z Emerging local warming signals in observational data Mahlstein, Irina Hegerl, Gabriele Solomon, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Solomon, Susan The global average temperature of the Earth has increased, but year-to-year variability in local climates impedes the identification of clear changes in observations and human experience. For a signal to become obvious in data records or in a human lifetime it needs to be greater than the noise of variability and thereby lead to a significant shift in the distribution of temperature. We show that locations with the largest amount of warming may not display a clear shift in temperature distributions if the local variability is also large. Based on observational data only we demonstrate that large parts of the Earth have experienced a significant local shift towards warmer temperatures in the summer season, particularly at lower latitudes. We also show that these regions are similar to those that are found to be significant in standard detection methods, thus providing an approach to link locally significant changes more closely to impacts. 2014-03-14T15:49:52Z 2014-03-14T15:49:52Z 2012-11 2012-10 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 00948276 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85625 Mahlstein, Irina, Gabriele Hegerl, and Susan Solomon. “Emerging Local Warming Signals in Observational Data.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, no. 21 (November 2012): L21711, p.1-5. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012gl053952 Geophysical Research Letters Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Geophysical Union Other univ. web domain |
| spellingShingle | Mahlstein, Irina Hegerl, Gabriele Solomon, Susan Emerging local warming signals in observational data |
| title | Emerging local warming signals in observational data |
| title_full | Emerging local warming signals in observational data |
| title_fullStr | Emerging local warming signals in observational data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emerging local warming signals in observational data |
| title_short | Emerging local warming signals in observational data |
| title_sort | emerging local warming signals in observational data |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85625 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mahlsteinirina emerginglocalwarmingsignalsinobservationaldata AT hegerlgabriele emerginglocalwarmingsignalsinobservationaldata AT solomonsusan emerginglocalwarmingsignalsinobservationaldata |