Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations
The zonally integrated meridional volume transport in the North Atlantic [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Meteorological Society
2014
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/87787 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6808-3664 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3925-6161 |
| _version_ | 1811075594478157824 |
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| author | Heimbach, Patrick Wunsch, Carl Isaac |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Heimbach, Patrick Wunsch, Carl Isaac |
| author_sort | Heimbach, Patrick |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The zonally integrated meridional volume transport in the North Atlantic [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19 yr with fluctuations indistinguishable from those of a stationary Gaussian stochastic process. This characterization makes it possible to study (using highly developed tools) extreme values, predictability, and the statistical significance of apparent trends. Gaussian behavior is consistent with the central limit theorem for a process arising from numerous independent disturbances. In this case, generators include internal instabilities, changes in wind and buoyancy forcing fields, boundary waves, the Gulf Stream and deep western boundary current transports, the interior fraction in Sverdrup balance, and all similar phenomena arriving as summation effects from long distances and times. As a zonal integral through the sum of the large variety of physical processes in the three-dimensional ocean circulation, understanding of the AMOC, if it is of central climate importance, requires breaking it down into its unintegrated components over the entire basin. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:08:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/87787 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:08:55Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/877872024-05-15T05:27:21Z Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations Heimbach, Patrick Wunsch, Carl Isaac Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Wunsch, Carl Heimbach, Patrick The zonally integrated meridional volume transport in the North Atlantic [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19 yr with fluctuations indistinguishable from those of a stationary Gaussian stochastic process. This characterization makes it possible to study (using highly developed tools) extreme values, predictability, and the statistical significance of apparent trends. Gaussian behavior is consistent with the central limit theorem for a process arising from numerous independent disturbances. In this case, generators include internal instabilities, changes in wind and buoyancy forcing fields, boundary waves, the Gulf Stream and deep western boundary current transports, the interior fraction in Sverdrup balance, and all similar phenomena arriving as summation effects from long distances and times. As a zonal integral through the sum of the large variety of physical processes in the three-dimensional ocean circulation, understanding of the AMOC, if it is of central climate importance, requires breaking it down into its unintegrated components over the entire basin. United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (AMOC and ECCO Grants) United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (AMOC and ECCO Grants) 2014-06-13T19:34:54Z 2014-06-13T19:34:54Z 2013-09 2013-03 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/87787 Wunsch, Carl, and Patrick Heimbach. “Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations.” J. Climate 26, no. 18 (September 2013): 7167–7186. © 2013 American Meteorological Society https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6808-3664 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3925-6161 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00478.1 Journal of Climate Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society |
| spellingShingle | Heimbach, Patrick Wunsch, Carl Isaac Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations |
| title | Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations |
| title_full | Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations |
| title_fullStr | Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations |
| title_short | Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations |
| title_sort | two decades of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation anatomy variations extremes prediction and overcoming its limitations |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/87787 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6808-3664 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3925-6161 |
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