Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?
Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Economic Association
2014
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88036 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8296-9875 |
| _version_ | 1826216518695780352 |
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| author | Pindyck, Robert S. |
| author2 | Sloan School of Management |
| author_facet | Sloan School of Management Pindyck, Robert S. |
| author_sort | Pindyck, Robert S. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:48:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/88036 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:48:58Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | American Economic Association |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/880362022-10-03T08:29:11Z Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? Pindyck, Robert S. Sloan School of Management Pindyck, Robert S. Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. 2014-06-19T19:36:15Z 2014-06-19T19:36:15Z 2013-09 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0022-0515 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88036 Pindyck, Robert S. “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?” Journal of Economic Literature 51, no. 3 (September 2013): 860–872. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8296-9875 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.51.3.860 Journal of Economic Literature Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Economic Association American Economic Association |
| spellingShingle | Pindyck, Robert S. Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? |
| title | Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? |
| title_full | Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? |
| title_short | Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? |
| title_sort | climate change policy what do the models tell us |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88036 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8296-9875 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pindyckroberts climatechangepolicywhatdothemodelstellus |