Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model
This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc
2014
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/89416 |
| _version_ | 1826195937008025600 |
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| author | Jiang, Yueyang Zhuang, Qianlai Schaphoff, Sibyll Sitch, Stephen Kicklighter, David Melillo, Jerry M. Sokolov, Andrei P |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Jiang, Yueyang Zhuang, Qianlai Schaphoff, Sibyll Sitch, Stephen Kicklighter, David Melillo, Jerry M. Sokolov, Andrei P |
| author_sort | Jiang, Yueyang |
| collection | MIT |
| description | This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45oN and polewards) for the period 1900–2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:18:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/89416 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:18:11Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | John Wiley & Sons, Inc |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/894162024-05-15T02:59:22Z Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model Jiang, Yueyang Zhuang, Qianlai Schaphoff, Sibyll Sitch, Stephen Kicklighter, David Melillo, Jerry M. Sokolov, Andrei P Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Sokolov, Andrei P. This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45oN and polewards) for the period 1900–2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue. United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program (NASA-NNX09AI26G)) United States. Dept. of Energy (DE-FG02–08ER64599) National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF-1028291) National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF-0919331) National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319)) 2014-09-10T18:24:22Z 2014-09-10T18:24:22Z 2012-03 2011-11 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 20457758 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/89416 Jiang, Yueyang, Qianlai Zhuang, Sibyll Schaphoff, Stephen Sitch, Andrei Sokolov, David Kicklighter, and Jerry Melillo. “Uncertainty Analysis of Vegetation Distribution in the Northern High Latitudes During the 21st Century with a Dynamic Vegetation Model.” Ecology and Evolution 2, no. 3 (February 13, 2012): 593–614. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.85 Ecology and Evolution Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ application/pdf John Wiley & Sons, Inc Wiley Blackwell |
| spellingShingle | Jiang, Yueyang Zhuang, Qianlai Schaphoff, Sibyll Sitch, Stephen Kicklighter, David Melillo, Jerry M. Sokolov, Andrei P Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model |
| title | Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model |
| title_full | Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model |
| title_short | Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model |
| title_sort | uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/89416 |
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