Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; and, (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1998.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | eng |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2005
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9094 |
| _version_ | 1826201237042757632 |
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| author | Schechter, Chris (Chris David), 1972- |
| author2 | Stanley B. Gershwin, Yashan Wang and Anthony T. Patera. |
| author_facet | Stanley B. Gershwin, Yashan Wang and Anthony T. Patera. Schechter, Chris (Chris David), 1972- |
| author_sort | Schechter, Chris (Chris David), 1972- |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; and, (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1998. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:48:45Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/9094 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:48:45Z |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/90942019-04-12T09:16:19Z Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain Schechter, Chris (Chris David), 1972- Stanley B. Gershwin, Yashan Wang and Anthony T. Patera. Sloan School of Management. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering. Sloan School of Management. Mechanical Engineering. Sloan School of Management. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; and, (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1998. Includes bibliographical references (p. 93). The importance of forecast accuracy is increasing in the semiconductor industry due to two compounding factors. The complexity of the manufacturing process is increasing which causes manufacturing cycle times to increase as well. Further, the lifecycle of products is decreasing. Thus manufacturers have to increasingly build ahead of demand while anticipating customer preference with increasing accuracy. This thesis investigates the origins of demand forecast inaccuracies at Digital Semiconductor as well as · characterizes the main supply chain costs of forecast inaccuracy. The forecasting cycle is a complicated chain spanning several functional groups each with their own incentives and interests. For Digital Semiconductor, the process is complicated by having one manufacturing site servicing five product lines which each have very different customers, competitors and product specifications. A successful process results in having the right type and number of parts available to customers at the right time. An over-optimistic forecast results in excess inventory and obsolescence, whereas a forecast that is too conservative will result in stock-outs and loss of customers. The thesis starts with a detailed analysis of Digital Semiconductor's forecasting process. We then describe the analysis and methodology we used to develop a model of Digital Semiconductor's supply chain. This model allowed us to characterize the supply chain costs of historical forecast errors. The thesis concludes with recommendations to improve the forecasting process at Digital Semiconductor. by Chris Schechter. M.B.A. S.M. 2005-08-24T19:39:16Z 2005-08-24T19:39:16Z 1998 1998 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9094 46972647 eng M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 93 p. 7747322 bytes 7747083 bytes application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Mechanical Engineering. Sloan School of Management. Schechter, Chris (Chris David), 1972- Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain |
| title | Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain |
| title_full | Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain |
| title_fullStr | Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain |
| title_short | Characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain |
| title_sort | characterization of the cost of forecast error in a complex supply chain |
| topic | Mechanical Engineering. Sloan School of Management. |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9094 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT schechterchrischrisdavid1972 characterizationofthecostofforecasterrorinacomplexsupplychain |