Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics
We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENS...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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Copernicus GmbH
2015
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/92786 |
| _version_ | 1826194228471922688 |
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| author | Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppola, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppola, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author_sort | Zaroug, M. A. H. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENSO in modulating rainfall over the upper Blue Nile catchment. Reg-TB shows a good skill in simulating the climatology of temperature, outgoing long-wave radiation patterns as well as related atmospheric circulation features during the summer season (i.e. the rainy season over the Blue Nile catchment). The model also succeeds in reproducing the observed negative correlation between Pacific SST and rainfall anomalies over the Blue Nile catchment, and in particular the association of droughts over the Blue Nile with El Niño events that start in April–June. We thus propose that observations and model forecasts of Pacific SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall over the upper Blue Nile region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:52:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/92786 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:52:53Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Copernicus GmbH |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/927862022-09-26T14:16:33Z Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppola, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENSO in modulating rainfall over the upper Blue Nile catchment. Reg-TB shows a good skill in simulating the climatology of temperature, outgoing long-wave radiation patterns as well as related atmospheric circulation features during the summer season (i.e. the rainy season over the Blue Nile catchment). The model also succeeds in reproducing the observed negative correlation between Pacific SST and rainfall anomalies over the Blue Nile catchment, and in particular the association of droughts over the Blue Nile with El Niño events that start in April–June. We thus propose that observations and model forecasts of Pacific SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall over the upper Blue Nile region. Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Earth System Physics Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Sandwich Training Educational Programme European Union (DEWFORA Project) 2015-01-12T16:24:08Z 2015-01-12T16:24:08Z 2014-11 2013-12 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1607-7938 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/92786 Zaroug, M. A. H., F. Giorgi, E. Coppola, G. M. Abdo, and E. A. B. Eltahir. “Simulating the Connections of ENSO and the Rainfall Regime of East Africa and the Upper Blue Nile Region Using a Climate Model of the Tropics.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, no. 11 (2014): 4311–4323. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4311-2014 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ application/pdf Copernicus GmbH Copernicus Publications |
| spellingShingle | Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppola, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_full | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_fullStr | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_short | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_sort | simulating the connections of enso and the rainfall regime of east africa and the upper blue nile region using a climate model of the tropics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/92786 |
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